Middle EastAnalysis

Israel’s army is faced with three options as it enters Lebanon

After recent losses Hizbullah is the weakest it has ever been, but it remains a formidable fighting force

Mourners march with the bodies of victims killed on September 29th in an Israeli air strike on the town of Ain al-Delb, on their way to their burial in a cemetery the nearby city of Sidon in southern Lebanon on Tuesday. Photograph: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images
Mark Weiss's picture
Mark Weiss in Jerusalem
Tue Oct 01 2024 - 14:19

The ground offensive in south Lebanon, which began on Monday night, came as no surprise to anyone in Israel.

It’s been clear for some time that very few of the more than 60,000 residents of northern Israel who fled their homes a year ago would agree to return without such a military manoeuvre.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm Daniel Hagari said the ground operation in southern Lebanon was designed to destroy the terrorist infrastructure that Hizbullah built in south Lebanese villages and towns.

“Hizbullah planned to invade Israel, attack Israeli communities and massacre innocent men, women and children. They called this plan, ‘Conquer the Galilee.’ If Lebanon and the world can’t push Hizbullah away from our border, we have no choice but to do it ourselves,” he said.

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The IDF is faced with three options. The first is to limit operations to the vicinity of the border fence, destroying Hizbullah infrastructure and tunnels that were built in preparation for a cross-border incursion, similar to the Hamas attack from Gaza on October 7th. Such an operation could potentially end in a few weeks. The second option is to move up to the Litani river to target infrastructure further away from the border and to remove the threat of anti-tank missile fire on Israel’s border communities. The third option is to move north of the Litani river to attack more of Hizbullah’s capabilities and operatives.

It is possible that the Israeli leadership has still not made a final decision and a number of factors will influence the strategy, such as international efforts to impose a ceasefire; the scope of the damage inflicted on Hizbullah; and the level of Israeli casualties, both to soldiers engaged in the fighting and to the home front.

After the blows it received in the last two weeks, Hizbullah is the weakest it has ever been. But no one is under any illusion that this will be an easy operation for Israel. Despite the losses already inflicted on Hizbullah’s Radwan strike force units in the border area and the huge number of rockets and launching pads that Israel has destroyed, Hizbullah remains a formidable fighting force that has been planning for years to resist an IDF invasion.

Hizbullah is better equipped and better trained than the Hamas fighters the IDF engaged in Gaza. The terrain, hilly and rocky, also makes it difficult for an advancing force. But the IDF, like in Gaza, enjoys aerial supremacy, and the ability of infantry units to advance in close co-ordination with air force support, was a key factor in the Gaza campaign, in which more than 41,000 Palestinians and nearly 350 Israeli soldiers have been reported killed.

Moshe Davidovitch, head of the Mateh Asher regional council in northern Israel, said the ground invasion should have been launched a long time ago. “Since our residents have lost their security, they have also lost hope, and very intensive actions need to be carried out here to destroy all those warrens, trenches and tunnels that exist right near the border, and all the tactical weapons that are in the possession of Radwan squads, which Hizbullah has stockpiled here over the course of the past 20 years.” he said. ”New conditions need to be created here in the Middle East.”

In tandem with the south Lebanon campaign, Israel is also closely monitoring on Iran. Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu warned at the United Nations last week that Israel would respond forcefully to any Iranian attack on Israel.