In the short term, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by the Israeli military raises more questions than answers, but there is no doubt that the Middle East is once again at a critical juncture and new possibilities have emerged to end the war in Gaza, now in its second year.
The critical issues to be addressed in the coming weeks include: Sinwar’s replacement as Hamas leader being more flexible in contacts to clinch a comprehensive peace deal; prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu seizing the “victory” of Sinwar’s killing as an opportunity to reach a deal; and Lebanon-based Hizbullah’s willingness to end to its attacks on northern Israel if there is peace in Gaza.
Sinwar was perceived by the Gaza ceasefire mediators as standing in the way of an agreement. Israel hopes that his killing, in addition to the recent assassination of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, could lead Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas to seek an end to the fighting.
However, initial indications from Hizbullah and Iran have not been encouraging. Hizbullah said on Friday it was moving to “a new and escalating phase” in its war against Israel while Iran said “the spirit of resistance will be strengthened” after the killing of Sinwar.
Many, including those in military and intelligence hierarchies, believe this is the right time for Israel to launch a diplomatic initiative from a position of strength. In return for ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel will seek the return of the hostages; the removal of Hamas as a military and governmental force; the withdrawal of Hizbullah forces to north of the Litani river, together with an effective international mechanism to prevent armed fighters returning to the border; and international recognition of Israel’s right to undertake military raids in Gaza and south Lebanon if the agreements are violated.
It is still not clear if Sinwar’s successor will want to pursue a deal or adopt a more militant stance, maintaining armed resistance and guerrilla-style attacks as the best way of pressuring Israeli forces to withdraw from Gaza. It is also not certain that the new Hamas leader would be capable of reaching all of the hostages and their captors, and be able to make decisions that are binding on all of the militants.
If a new Hamas chief is chosen from the leadership in exile, fresh problems could emerge. These figures have no real connection to the remnants of the commanders of Hamas in Gaza because they are no longer able to transfer money to them or even communicate with them.
Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden spoke after the confirmation of Sinwar’s death and agreed that there is an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages.
[ Israel condemns UN chief for not 'welcoming' the killing of Hamas leaderOpens in new window ]
It is of course possible that at least some of the Hamas captors will seek to avenge their leader’s death by harming or killing the hostages. Such a scenario underlines the importance of acting as quickly as possible to take advantage of the vacuum created by Sinwar’s death. Israel, in co-ordination with Washington and the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, needs to initiate a plan to break the deadlock.
US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said Sinwar’s killing was an achievement that created new possibilities for the region. “Sinwar’s death provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza, and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas’ oppressive rule,” he said.
Another possibility is that Israel may be able to reach separate deals with different groups of armed Hamas operatives who are holding hostages.
Hamas’ military situation has radically changed now that Sinwar is no longer in control. Its central command structure is no longer a factor and the organisation has essentially split into different groups operating in the various parts of Gaza, with little co-ordination between those in the north and those south of the Netzarim corridor, held by IDF soldiers, which splits the coastal enclave in two.
[ Yahya Sinwar profile: Reported architect of October 7th killed in GazaOpens in new window ]
An Israeli proposal – safe passage out of Gaza for anyone who releases hostages – may be enough to tempt at least some of the Hamas gunmen to act independently without waiting for a comprehensive ceasefire and hostage release agreement. Some of the hostages are believed to be held by local clans, often criminal elements, who may also be tempted by such an offer.
But Netanyahu still faces far-right opposition within his coalition to a deal. Over the last few months, Egyptian and Qatari mediators have accused Netanyahu of delaying an agreement in a bid to maintain his own hold on power. His far-right coalition partners were quick to call for Israel to step up the military pressure in Gaza following Sinwar’s killing. National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called for Israel to “continue with all our strength until absolute victory”.
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