The swift seizure of Aleppo in Syria by al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could deepen existing instability in the Eastern Arab world.
As Syria and Iraq form the Middle East’s heartland, destabilising events in either or both tend to ripple across the region.
On Syria’s domestic front, the shock fall of Aleppo has delivered a major blow to the government which has failed a second time to defend Syria’s second-largest city. Syrian jihadis and rebels seized the eastern sector of the city in 2013, but the western sector remained under government control. The ancient souks which connect the two sectors were destroyed but have been restored to their original state.
The attack coincides with Syria’s economic crisis, which was caused by mismanagement and western sanctions. While President Bashar al-Assad has re-established relations with Arab leaders who shunned him during Syria’s civil war, sanctions have prevented investment in reconstruction.
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On the regional front, Hizbullah fighters, who supported the government during the civil war (2011-2017), have been decimated by Israel’s war on Lebanon. Syria-based pro-Iranian fighters, also allied with Assad, have been systematically targeted by Israel. Without reinforcements, the overstretched and under-resourced Syrian army was unable to defend Aleppo against HTS, which has the support of the Turkish-surrogate Syrian National Army (SNA). When HTS forces reached the heart of western Aleppo, a fighter raised the Turkish flag from the top of the city’s famous citadel.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pressed for normalisation with Syria, but Assad has rejected restoring ties until Turkish forces withdraw from Syria. Turkey occupies the northwest Afrin district, has military bases in HTS-ruled northwest Idlib province and controls several border enclaves. During the Aleppo offensive, Turkey’s SNA attacked Syrian Kurdish forces north of Aleppo and in the east.
The HTS conquest of Aleppo has revived fears of militant Sunni fundamentalism in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, but they are unlikely to send troops to aid Assad.
On the international front, Turkey has become the chief external power in Syria, taking over from government allies Iran and Russia. While pro-Iranian fighters did not apparently intervene against the HTS march on Aleppo, Russia’s warplanes bombed HTS fighters. Since 2015, Russia has provided air cover for Syrian forces, but Moscow is focused on the Ukraine war rather than Syria.
If US president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his intention to withdraw 900 US troops from Kurdish-held northeastern Syria, there will no longer be a presence to deter Turkey from attacking the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces and ousting the Kurdish de facto regime. Turkey regards Syrian Kurdish forces to be an offshoot of Turkish Kurdish separatists which have been fighting Ankara since 1978.
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