The sudden conquest of Damascus completed the overthrow of the 54-year-old Assad dynasty and the takeover of Syria. The paramilitaries involved were ex-al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and jihadi factions under the umbrella of the Turkish-sponsored Syrian National Army.
Air force chief Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970 following years of instability, imposed an austere regime and was succeeded in 2000 by his son Bashar al-Assad, who brutally crushed an uprising sparked by the 2011 Arab Spring.
During its 11-day conquest of Syria’s main cities, HTS met little resistance from the populace, the overstretched and under-resourced Syrian army, and its Russian and Iranian allies.
Syria’s survival depends on how HTS tackles the country’s existential challenges.
As leader of the offensive, HTS must assert control over diverse allied factions to prevent infighting and the fracturing of Syria into fiefdoms held by warring factions. Anarchy could spill over into neighbouring Lebanon and Jordan and destabilise the eastern Arab world.
HTS must also impose law and order to prevent looting, assaults on government facilities and infrastructure, and revenge attacks. It has to ensure a smooth transition to a new system of governance to replace the authoritarian family model dominated by the Assads and the Baath Party.
While opposition supporters celebrated in the capital’s Umayyad Square, Damascenes contacted by phone remained at home, discouraged from venturing out by bursts of celebratory shooting and uncertainty over what the coming days might bring.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani attempted to reassure civilians by ordering factional fighters to steer clear of government institutions and saying that outgoing prime minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali would remain in office until the transition takes place.
Speaking from Damascus, academic and former member of parliament George Jabbour said: “We will accept change without changing basic principles. It has been difficult since November 27th [when the HTS offensive began] but I have not heard of civilian victims.”
Referring to Syria’s Christians and other minorities, Jolani admitted in a Friday interview with CNN: “There were some violations against individuals during periods of chaos, but we addressed these issues. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.”
[ Who are the Syrian rebels who have taken Damascus?Opens in new window ]
In Idlib, HTS has provided healthcare, education and sharia law courts. It has ruled with a heavy hand and tolerated no dissent.
HTS flew the Turkish flag on Aleppo’s famous citadel, causing concern among many Syrians over HTS’s close connection with Turkey. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday before the fall of Damascus: “We hope this march in Syria will continue without any issues.”
Erdogan’s involvement with Syria’s anti-Assad opposition began in 2011 with the recruitment of fighters and officers for the rebel Free Syrian Army and the formation of the expatriate Syrian National Council as an alternative to the Assad regime. Following the 2017 rebel takeover of Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, Turkey sustained its presence and armed its fighters. Turkey has also occupied nearly 9,000sq km of Syrian territory, including the northwest district of Afrin and 100 border villages and towns. Nevertheless, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan spoke on Sunday of the need to preserve Syria’s “territorial integrity”.
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