There’s hardly a family in Israel who doesn’t know at least one of the hostages. For most it’s not a direct close family link but it could be a work colleague whose cousin is a hostage, or a neighbour whose daughter is best friends with one of the hostages. Many families have links to more than one of those in captivity.
Television and radio news programmes since October 7th, 2023 – when the hostages were seized by Hamas gunmen – open with a reminder of how many hostages there are and how long they have been in Gaza. “Bring Them All Home” is a popular chant at weekly football games.
The issue of the hostages has dominated the Israeli discourse since the start of the Gaza war 470 days ago. It’s Israel’s Achilles heel and Hamas knows it all too well.
At the start of the war Israel’s leaders argued that only intense military pressure would bring the hostages home. That worked in only a few isolated cases when hostages were rescued during daring commando raids. In other instances hostages were shot by their captives when Israeli troops closed in or were killed in Israeli air strikes. The brutal military onslaught failed to bring about a Hamas surrender.
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More than 100 hostages, including nine-year old Emily Hand, daughter of Irishman Tom, were set free in the first set of releases more than a year ago. Since then the talks were deadlocked and it was apparent that the only way to rescue the hostages was by a deal involving Israel releasing hundreds of Palestinian militants, including many who participated in attacks in which Israelis were killed.
An analysis by Israel’s national security council (NSC) of the 1,027 militants who were released by Israel in 2011 in return for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit showed that 83 per cent resumed militant activity.
“The decision to release security prisoners and other detainees, including those who committed heinous crimes, is extraordinarily difficult,” the NSC wrote in an opinion presented to ministers ahead of the weekend cabinet vote endorsing the ceasefire. “The government must weigh ‘pain against pain’. The profound and genuine pain of families harmed by the listed prisoners contrasts with the fear for the lives of the hostages and the daily suffering of their families.”
Despite the painful price, there is widespread support for the ceasefire in Israel. A poll by public broadcaster Kan showed 62 per cent of the public supported the ceasefire deal, compared with 18 per cent who were opposed and 20 per cent who said they were undecided.
Many in Israel said Sunday’s images of the return of the three women hostages (and the anticipated return of 30 more hostages over the next six weeks) was the real victory image, more impressive than all the victories on the battlefields.
National security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right party, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength), quit the governing coalition on Sunday, citing the government’s “reckless” ceasefire deal with Hamas. The ceasefire constitutes “a complete victory for terrorism,” Mr Ben-Gvir said, asserting: “We will not return to the government table without a complete victory against Hamas and the full realisation of the war’s goals.”
The other far-right party, the Religious Zionist party, headed by minister for finance Bezalel Smotrich, said it would follow suit if prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed to resume the war after the end of the first phase of the ceasefire in six weeks’ time.
In a pre-recorded televised address aimed at softening the opposition to the deal, Mr Netanyahu described the first phase of the ceasefire as “temporary” and he warned that Israel “will not relent until all hostages are released,” stressing that Israel retained the right to resume the war, with US backing.
“If we must return to fighting we will do that in new, forceful ways,” he said. “President Trump and President Biden have given full backing to Israel’s right to return to combat if Israel concludes that negotiations on phase B are futile,” he said.
President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said on Sunday that if Hamas backtracked on the Gaza ceasefire deal the United States would support Israel in its response. “If Hamas reneges on this deal and Hamas backs out, moves the goalpost, what have you, we will support Israel in doing what it has to do,” he said, adding that Hamas would never again govern Gaza.
However, if the war is resumed and the sides don’t progress to phase two of the ceasefire, Israel would have no way to free the 64 living and dead hostages still in Gaza.
And even if the fighting is resumed, that won’t be enough to topple Hamas from power. The Israel Defense Forces defeated Hamas militarily six months ago, but Hamas is returning and rebuilding because Israel failed to suggest an alternative, rejecting any role for the Palestinian Authority, under pressure from the far-right parties in Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.
It was Hamas gunmen who were on the (largely destroyed) streets of Gaza, maintaining public order during Sunday’s hostage release. Hamas kept two battalions (out of 24) in reserve during the war, waiting for this day. Hamas is still in control.
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