Donald Trump has started his second term as US president by introducing policies intended to reshape the Middle East.
On the Palestine-Israel conflict, he has pledged to be “a peacemaker” and said Saudi Arabia and Israel might sign a normalisation deal. This would encourage other Arab countries to establish relations with Israel and crush Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
However, Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman said on September 18th, 2024, that Riyadh’s normalisation depends on the establishment of “an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital”. This leaves the Arab-Israeli dispute in limbo.
Trump backed away from the “two-state solution” in a Time magazine Interview in May 2024. He said, “There was a time when I thought two states could work. Now I think two states is going to be very, very tough.” Israel prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has rejected the two-state solution.
Trump has cancelled Biden administration sanctions on violent Israeli West Bank settlers who attacked Palestinians, torched homes and uprooted olive trees. Israel’s Haaretz newspaper carried a critical editorial headlined: “Israel and Trump have given settler terrorism the green light.”
Although these settlements are illegal under international law and were previously branded by the US as an “obstacle to peace”, Trump considers them legal. His UN ambassador, Elise Stefanik, has said Israel has a “Biblical right to the West Bank”.
Trump has said he is not confident about the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire that was recently agreed between Israel and Hamas.
When saying the US might have a role in Gaza’s reconstruction, he called the strip a “phenomenal location, on the sea” that must be “rebuilt in a different way”. This echoed son-in-law Jared Kushner’s 2024 comments about transforming Gaza into a tourist destination, presumably after it is resettled by Israelis.
Nevertheless, regional envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that Hamas’s call for dialogue was welcome and said he would visit Israel to ensure implementation and transition to the second phase of the ceasefire deal.
Fearing permanent exile, Gazans have objected to reports that Witkoff is considering relocating them to Indonesia during reconstruction. Jakarta said it was not consulted on such a plan.
Trump could back Israel’s law banning the UN refugee agency Unrwa from operating in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza from January 28th. As Unrwa provides Palestinians with food, education and healthcare, this could create a humanitarian disaster.
The new president is expected to resume sanctions on the International Criminal Court for issuing warrants for the arrest of Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, who are accused of war crimes in Gaza.
While maintaining $3.8 billion (€3.65 billion) in annual US support for Israel’s military, Trump could resume the exporting of 900kg bombs, suspended by his predecessor.
Trump has designated Yemeni Houthis “terrorists” over their support for Hamas.
During his first term, Trump began reshaping the region by recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and shifting the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, although this was to be negotiated between Palestinians and Israelis.
Trump recognised the Israeli annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights but opposed the annexation of West Bank settlements. He closed the US consulate in East Jerusalem, which served Palestinians, and shuttered the Palestinian mission in Washington. He cut funding to Unrwa and persuaded the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan to normalise their relationship with Israel.
International Atomic Energy Agency director general Rafael Grossi told Washington-based Al-Monitor website on Wednesday that the administration could be ready to renew the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions despite Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018.
Iranian vice-president Javad Zarif has called for talks on the issue. The new Pentagon regional policy chief, Michael DiMino, has long favoured a policy of restraint toward Iran and has expressed opposition to joint US-Israel attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, a long-standing aim of Netanyahu.
A return to the agreement could normalise relations between Tehran and Washington and ease regional tensions.
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