The US’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is returning to the region this week, aiming to keep the Gaza ceasefire alive.
Witkoff said at the weekend he expected the sides to move towards stage two of the three-phase agreement that brought a cessation last month to Israel’s war on Gaza, but first he has to ensure that the remaining clauses of the first stage are implemented.
Israel has held up the release of more than 600 Palestinian prisoners, accusing Hamas of a series of violations, and is demanding an end to what it describes as the “cruel and humiliating” ceremonies staged by the Palestinian militant group before hostages are released and bodies returned.
Hamas says it will not negotiate on the second phase of the ceasefire until the prisoners are released, but reports on Monday indicated it may soon release two dead Israeli hostages in exchange for Tel Aviv freeing the prisoners whose release has been delayed. This would leave two more bodies to be released by Hamas on Thursday, marking the last act of stage one of the ceasefire agreement.
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If this happens, 59 hostages will remain in Gaza, 24 of whom Israel believes are alive.
On Saturday, under the ceasefire agreement, Israel Defense Forces personnel are supposed to start leaving the Philadelphi corridor, which runs along the Gaza Strip’s border with Egypt. Israel is reluctant to take this step while the future of Gaza remains unclear.
Hamas has offered to release the remaining hostages due to be freed in the second stage in one go, but only if Israel withdraws all its forces from Gaza and agrees to a permanent end to the war. It is unlikely that prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, under pressure from his right-wing coalition partners, will make such a commitment without guarantees that Hamas will no longer rule Gaza and that its leaders will be exiled.
As a plan B, Israel is preparing for the possibility of having the first stage of the ceasefire extended. If that happens, Israel would seek to prioritise the release of hostages who are fathers, along with wounded or ill hostages, based on accounts received from other recently released captives.
Such an extension could make it possible to have two or three releases, which would take place during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which starts at the end of this week, assumed to be a period when Hamas would have no desire to resume the fighting.
Israeli officials say a return to war remains an option. It was announced on Sunday that military preparations around the Gaza Strip have been increased.
However, this remains a fallback option and Israel would prefer to secure the release of additional hostages, even if this means releasing more senior Palestinian militants and allowing the entry of more humanitarian aid, mobile homes and heavy machinery into Gaza.
