Sunak facing byelection headache as Tories set to lose two seats

Britain’s prime minister Rishi Sunak faces a fresh electoral headache in coming months with the possibility of losing two more seats in tough byelection campaigns sparked by Tory sleaze claims.

A byelection will be held early in the new year for the Northamptonshire seat held by prominent Brexiteer Peter Bone, after enough constituents signed a petition to sack him as an MP in a process known as a “recall petition”. This followed his six-week suspension from the House of Commons over allegations that he bullied and sexually harassed an aide.

The Conservative Party also faces the prospect of seeing another of its MPs sacked through a recall petition, after a standards committee recommended a 35-day Commons suspension for Scott Benton, who sits in Blackpool South. The committee found he didn’t declare lobbying of ministers for the gambling industry. He could yet appeal the ruling, which would delay any potential byelection following a successful recall petition.

Both Mr Bone and Mr Benton deny any wrongdoing in their respective cases.

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The byelection for Mr Bone’s seat and, potentially, for Mr Benton’s are in what were seen as safe Conservative seats with large majorities. Mr Sunak’s authority as Tory leader was badly damaged after a string of byelection defeats in similarly safe Tory seats throughout 2023.

Two more potential Tory defeats to Labour, especially so close to a general election that is expected later next year, would seriously undermine Mr Sunak’s authority within his party.

Mr Bone’s case is the more immediate threat for Mr Sunak. The MP was found by an investigative panel in October to have engaged in a “deliberate and conscious abuse of power” by bullying and harassing a young man who worked for him in parliament.

Among several allegations was that he exposed himself to the man in the bathroom of a hotel room they shared in Madrid. Mr Bone denied the claims as “totally untrue and without foundation”.

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Following the panel’s findings, the Commons voted to suspend him for six weeks. This triggered a recall petition, which happens automatically if an MP is suspended for more than 10 days. If more than 10 per cent of constituents sign the petition, the MP loses their seat and a byelection follows. As Tuesday’s deadline closed, more than 13 per cent of Mr Bone’s constituents had signed the petition.

He had a healthy majority of 18,540 but Labour and the Liberal Democrats overturned larger margins in byelection wins over the Tories in 2023.

Whatever slim hopes the Tories have of clinging on to the seat may rest with Mr Bone, who is free to run again in the byelection. He was thrown out of the Conservative Party parliamentary party after the panel’s findings, so would be unable to run again as a Tory without the party whip, which is unlikely to be restored.

It has been suggested he could run as an independent in Wellingborough, where he has a large personal following. That would split the conservative vote and hand the seat to Labour. Mr Bone said he would have “more to say” in the new year.

The earliest a byelection could happen in Wellingborough is February 8th if the Tories move the writ immediately after Christmas recess. If the Tories surprise everybody and cling on, it could sparks calls for Mr Sunak to call an earlier general election, perhaps in May, to capitalise on momentum.

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