Shocked but not surprised. That was the general reaction from Labour politicians to what is sure to be one of the party’s worst results in English local elections.
Shocked because of the epic scale of the defeat. Not surprised because, well, voters on their doorsteps had warned Labour canvassers what was coming in Thursday’s poll.
Throw in Labour’s absolute shellacking in parliamentary votes in Scotland and Wales, where, almost unbelievably, it is struggling to get into double digits in terms of seats, and Labour’s status as a national party in Britain could be genuinely under threat if it cannot reverse the slide by the time the next UK general election arrives.
That it finds itself in such a pickle barely two years after winning a landslide victory in Westminster is astonishing. That it soared those heights then plumbed its current depths led by the same man, UK prime minister Keir Starmer, is a riddle for the ages.
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“Vote Reform, Get Starmer Out,” was the election slogan for Nigel Farage’s party. Many voters did the first bit. Whether they get their suggested outcome is another matter.
It seems unlikely that Starmer will be toppled in the immediate aftermath of these elections. Most MPs, bar a few usual suspects, seemed to be holding their counsel on Friday. But the odds on him carrying on for much longer appear to be lengthening.
Labour has got a world of problems, and Starmer is clearly one. He is now viewed as the least popular sitting prime minister in UK history. Pollsters said it. Voters proved it.
Here is the story of the elections overall. Disaster everywhere for Labour, including the indignity of Welsh first minister Eluned Morgan losing her seat. Triumph for Farage’s rampant Reform in the English locals, a strong performance in Scotland and a stronger one in Wales. A bit of a hammering for the Tories, but that was already priced in.
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The Green Party did well, but it did not fully surge as it had hoped – Labour, for example, held it off in London council areas such as Hammersmith and Fulham, which the Zack Polanski party had targeted. Modest gains in England for the Liberal Democrats.
In Wales the nationalists of Plaid Cymru ended a century of Labour’s dominance. It will be the largest party in the Senedd, comfortably ahead of Reform with Labour a distant third. Up north, the Scottish National Party did well with a slightly reduced vote share. But it is, after all, its fifth Holyrood election win in a row. The SNP fell just short of an overall majority, but close enough to contemplate governing Scotland alone.
It is always dangerous to envision a British national picture from local elections in just a few parts of England, but Reform figures believe its national vote share on this performance would have been about 29 per cent or maybe 30 per cent. With the way British politics has been fractured, that puts Farage in the frame as the most likely next UK prime minister, unless one of Starmer’s rivals topples him and gets there first.
But what is most galling for Labour, and most welcome for Reform, is not just how big Farage’s party won in England, gaining well over 1,000 of the 5,000 seats on offer. But where it gained them.
It had long been expected that Reform would triumph in the old so-called Red Wall areas of the English midlands and parts of the north. But the northwest, around Manchester and Merseyside, were still seen as left-leaning bastions for Labour. No more. Labour’s northwest heartlands have been left in smoking rubble.
Reform pulled off its victory by doubling down on its populist instincts, following a period of uncertainty after it had accepted a slew of old Tory establishment defectors such as Nadhim Zahawi. During this campaign, the populist red meat thrown by Reform to its supporters included a promise to situate migrant camps in Green-voting areas.
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But in the end, the contest’s real red meat was the Labour Party itself, devoured by Farage’s troops. It is a year since he leaned over a pub gate and told The Irish Times that, in old Labour areas, voters had a personal problem with Starmer. He was right.
There had been signs of Tory life in recent months as its leader, Kemi Badenoch, was generally accepted to have found her feet. Then Reform this week took control of Essex council in her backyard. They also won in Suffolk, Norfolk, and even in Havering on the outskirts of London.
The Green Party won the Hackney mayorship in inner London. But even though its vote share nearly doubled, it did not reach the heights that it had ambitiously hoped for. If there is a sliver of comfort for Labour, it is this: its left-wing rival didn’t batter it as hard as it might have done.
Reform is the now the established force in English local politics. Plaid Cymru will most likely lead a minority administration in Wales, while the SNP might likewise in Scotland.
Starmer, meanwhile, insisted he will stay the course. Yet he has done so many U-turns, who could rule out another one?
