Lack of enthusiasm for a Trump-Biden rematch could open the door for a third-party candidate

Americans don’t seem wild about the prospect of Donald Trump and Joe Biden fighting out a rematch of the last presidential election in 2024.

An Economist/YouGov poll last month suggested that 63 per cent of people did not want Biden to run again for the White House while about 57 per cent had the same view about Trump.

However, as things stand a Trump/Biden election seems very likely.

Trump is miles ahead of all the other candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination. And his legal troubles – which will see him face two separate criminal trials, and potentially more – have not affected his appeal among his base. Trump’s campaign has said it raised $35 million during the second quarter of the year – despite him being indicted on two occasions.

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The challenge of Ron DeSantis, who a few months ago was billed as the person who could take the Republican Party away from Trump, has not gained momentum over the first few weeks of his campaign.

DeSantis is seeking to run to the right of Trump. Last week his supporters released a video criticising the former president over comments he made in the past which offered support to the LGBTQ community.

Of course, a faltering start to a presidential campaign does not necessarily herald a certain defeat – just look back at Barack Obama at the beginning of his battle against Hillary Clinton in the 2008 contest or, indeed, Biden in 2020

The video contained footage of Trump at the Republican National Convention in 2016 saying he would “do everything in my power to protect our LGBTQ citizens” – just weeks after the mass shooting at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida in which 50 people were killed.

‘Divisive and desperate’

The video was immediately criticised, not just by Democrats and liberals but also by prominent LGBTQ+ Republicans.

The Log Cabin Republicans, a group which maintains it is the “largest Republican organisation dedicated to representing LGBT conservatives” in the US, described the DeSantis campaign War Room video as “divisive and desperate”.

But whatever the motivation behind the DeSantis video last week, it is certainly true that his campaign has yet to take off.

Of course, a faltering start to a presidential campaign does not necessarily herald a certain defeat – just look back at Barack Obama at the beginning of his battle against Hillary Clinton in the 2008 contest or, indeed, Biden in 2020.

Biden is facing two rivals at present for the Democratic Party nomination for the White House – activist and lawyer Robert F Kennedy and author Marianne Williamson.

Biden has a very significant lead in the polls and seems all set to secure the nomination. But Kennedy has attracted a sizeable number of Democrat voters – running from low double digits to about 20 per cent in some polls.

But winning their parties’ primaries in one thing; how Biden and Trump would perform in a general election remains to be seen.

With significant numbers of potential voters less than enthusiastic about either Biden or Trump for a second White House term, does this open the way for a third alternative?

Middle ground

Third-party candidates in presidential elections would not be new. Contestants representing the Reform Party or the Green Party have stood in recent times.

Potentially in the middle ground in 2024 could be a movement known as No Labels, which says it seeks to offer a political home for those tired of the extremes of the left and the right.

No Labels has indicated that it will pull the plug next spring if there is no visible path to success in the US electoral college system

It dates back to 2009 and it was behind the “problem-solvers caucus” in the US Congress which aimed to resolve thorny political difficulties. Its founding chairman was Joe Lieberman, a former Democrat and independent senator, while others involved include former Republican governors Larry Hogan and Pat McCrory.

It is now looking at what it is describing as an “insurance plan” that would allow a unity ticket to run in 2024 if the two main parties select unreasonably divisive presidential nominees. There has been speculation that centrist Democrat senator Joe Manchin could be interested in running as a third-party candidate.

[ Trump rails against federal charges and accuses Biden of ‘weaponising’ justice department ]

However, No Labels has indicated that it will pull the plug next spring if there is no visible path to success in the US electoral college system.

The very idea of a high-profile third party candidate has caused worry among Democrats that it could just hand the White House to Trump – in the same way some Republicans are fearful that Trump, if he did not secure his party’s nomination, would run anyway and split the conservative vote.

Later this month No Labels is scheduled to publish its manifesto – based on what it describes as common-sense ideas.

The 2024 US election promises many potential twists and turns – Trump’s criminal trials, Biden’s age issues. The potential for a well-funded third-party candidate may be another.