USAnalysis

Trump’s various trials will dominate the backdrop of the US presidential election

Some Republican strategists worry about the former president concentrating on re-litigating his defeat in 2020

On Fox News, which many supporters of Donald Trump would have been watching, anchors spoke about how it was now all becoming “routine”.

Once – maybe only a few months ago – the sight of a former US president being arraigned in a court in advance of a criminal trial would have been unthinkable. Now, it was suggested, people were becoming inured to such images.

There was, of course, some truth there. Viewers had seen this film before.

In the last four months, Trump had experienced similar court procedures in New York and in Miami.

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Overall, across various cases, he faces 78 criminal charges. In the months ahead he will stand trial on three occasions at least. There may be another indictment imminent in Georgia.

There are also separate civil actions in the offing, including about the business practices of his companies and another defamation case involving the writer E Jean Carroll who, a jury found in May, was sexually abused by the former president nearly 30 years ago.

The most recent indictment,regarding his actions after the presidential election in November 2020, is the most serious case politically.

It suggests the so-called leader of the free world wanted so badly to hold on to power after losing to Joe Biden that he engaged in a conspiracy to subvert the election results. He is the first president to be accused of trying to block the peaceful transfer of authority to a successor.

Trump has rejected every accusation against him in all the cases and has pleaded not guilty to every count. The former president insists he is the victim of political persecution and that his enemies are out to prevent him returning to the White House. He alleges the Biden administration has “weaponised” the justice system to stop its main political opponent.

The key question for the US and much of the world will be how all these indictments affect Trump’s prospects in the presidential election next year.

Trump’s claims of fraud and that he was cheated out of a second term – which have not been accepted by any court but have been amplified on conservative media channels – have seeped into the consciousness of much of his Republican Party. A poll this week found nearly 70 per cent of Republicans believed Biden was not a legitimate president.

The various prosecutions have bolstered Trump in his party. He is by far the favourite to secure the Republican nomination for the White House next year, with polls suggesting he is more than 30 per cent ahead of his rivals.

But still other candidates who appear to be running “no hope” campaigns with minuscule levels of support are hanging in there – indicating they believe something could yet derail Trump.

The former president is so far ahead he may not even bother turning up for the first televised debate with other Republican candidates later this month. But nonetheless the legal cases have generated some difficulties.

Trump’s campaign is well funded and continues to seek to raise money on the back of the various prosecutions. But it is burning through cash. Reports this week suggested it had spent $40 million (€36.5 million) on legal fees so far. These are resources that could otherwise have been devoted to attacking his political opponents.

Another problem is time, a precious commodity as the clock ticks towards November 2024.

The dates for court appearances are now intersecting with the political calendar.

Early in an election year, presumptive nominees should be on the stump; meeting voters and donors in key states. Trump, on the other hand, faces being in courtrooms for potentially weeks. The trial in Manhattan relating to alleged hush money payments to adult actor Stormy Daniels is scheduled for March; the prosecution over his handling of classified documents is slated for May. A court in Washington will soon have to decide on when the case will take place over the claims he sought to overturn the 2020 election results.

These dates in themselves will be a battle ground. Prosecutors want “speedy trials”, Trump’s lawyers will want the opposite.

In theory at least, winning the election next year could provide Trump with an escape route from his legal jeopardy. It would be unprecedented but there is a view that Trump as president could order the department of justice to drop any federal case against him still under way or pardon himself if he had already been convicted.

But between now and November 2024 there is an election to be fought. Polls suggest Americans are not enthusiastic about a Biden/Trump rematch, but that is what they might get.

The trials are likely to dominate everything. Trump and his lawyers have indicated these will effectively allow them to re-litigate the 2020 election, giving them subpoena powers to seek documents and witnesses to substantiate their case about fraud.

Some Republican strategists, however, worry that concentration on Trump’s grievances did not play well in the midterm elections last year. They would rather try exploit concerns over the economy and a Democratic president with relatively weak poll numbers.

Biden and the Democrats bet the house in the midterms on warning about threats to American democracy. They fared much better than anticipated then and will probably be happy to remind voters every day about the January 6th Capitol riot and the dangers, as they see it, posed by Trump.

A former US president appearing in court may or may not be “routine” these days, but Trump’s trials will be the backdrop for all that will play out politically in the US over the next 15 months.