The perils of extrapolating exponential growth rates indefinitely are exemplified by former Peloton chief executive John Foley.
During the pandemic, demand exploded for Peloton’s home exercise equipment. Shares soared 400 per cent in 2020, with Peloton’s valuation peaking at $63 billion.
To Foley, it was just the start. “I see this as clear as day”, he told the Peloton board in October 2020. “This thing is going to be one of the few $1 trillion companies in 15 years”.
Unconvinced, the board members suggested he not say that again, saying it “makes you sound like an idiot”.
The board was right. Since peaking, shares have fallen 97 per cent. Once a billionaire, Foley is in the news after telling the New York Post he had “lost all my money” and “had to sell almost everything”.
The Peloton founder, who resigned in 2022, remains optimistic, saying shares should be about “$40 or $50″ – roughly 10 times higher than today’s price.
There is such a thing as too much optimism.
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