Never mind Ryanair’s short-term woes, and focus on the bigger picture: Europe’s aviation industry is heading for another shake-out.
That was Michael O’Leary’s argument in Ryanair’s latest earnings call with analysts. Ryanair profits sank 34 per cent to €538 million as lower fares and higher fuel costs squeezed margins. Price-sensitive passengers are booking later, with only about 40 per cent of September seats sold, prompting analysts to cut targets after Ryanair warned summer fares would be lower than expected.
However, O’Leary’s focus was more on competitors than the current quarter, saying many airlines face rising costs and higher fuel exposure, leaving them with a choice between raising fares or cutting capacity.
Some rivals, he said, are “heroically losing money”, with the focus on perks such as free on-board wifi compared to people drowning on the Titanic “still playing violin”.
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Ryanair is positioning itself differently. Ryanair repaid its final bond and is “essentially” debt-free, has completed about 90 per cent of its €750 million share buyback programme, and holds more than €2.8 billion in cash. O’Leary plans on rebuilding gross cash to about €4 billion, back to pre-Covid levels, to protect it against “unforeseen eventualities” such as Covid or the Iran war.
Rebuilding a €4 billion cash buffer rather than rushing into another buyback is a defensive strategy that echoes O’Leary’s argument: further turbulence may be ahead, with Ryanair seeking the financial firepower to outlast weaker rivals when it arrives.
