Lack of natural immunity sees Waterford hit hardest in fourth Covid wave, GP says

Waterford is experiencing the worst level of Covid-19 in the country because it was spared during earlier waves of the virus, a prominent general practitioner in the county has said.

Five of the six local authority areas in the county have a 14-day incidence rate of more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 of the population, meaning that in the last fortnight one person in every 100 has tested positive.

Waterford City South has the highest rate in the State with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,481.7 per 100,000 last week.

Yet some 96.6 per cent of people over the age of 12 and 99.5 per cent of people over the age of 18 are fully vaccinated in the county, according to the latest figures on vaccination produced by the Health Service Executive (HSE).

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Dr Niall Macnamara, who is part of the Keogh Practice in Waterford city, said vaccines are "not anything like as effective as we initially thought they might be" in stopping the spread of Covid-19.

However, he stressed that they have been proven to prevent the chances of hospitaliation, serious illness and death.

The rising rates can also be explained by the fact that children aged under 12 are not vaccinated and there is waning immunity for those who received their vaccinations early.

However, Dr Macnamara said the biggest factor in Waterford’s rates of Covid-19, which are on average twice that of the rest of the State, is the county’s relative success in keeping the virus out in previous waves.

During the second wave in the late summer of 2020 and the third and deadliest wave during January and February this year, Waterford consistently had the lowest rates of Covid-19 in the State.

“We were spared in Waterford the brunt of the first couple of waves of Covid. Yes, we got hit like everyone else after Christmas, but at no point did we get hit to the same extent as most of the rest of the country,” he said.

“This means that the natural immunity one would get from people having contracted Covid-19, there are very few people in Waterford who have had that. Therefore, it was fertile soil for Delta to spread once it arrives.”

Dr Macnamara said vaccine boosters will be successful in stopping the spread of Covid-19 in the community. Booster shots are currently being rolled out to people aged 60 and over, and to frontline healthcare workers.

“It may become evident that the only way we can pragmatically effect the spread of Delta will be to extend the booster campaign to a wider group of people,” Dr Macnamara said.

Vaccination rates

Carlow has the second-highest rate of vaccination in the State, with 96.4 per cent of over-12s and 98.7 per cent of over-18s fully vaccinated.

The counties with the highest rates of vaccination are clustered in the southeast. In Wexford, 95 per cent of the population over the age of 12 is fully vaccinated. In Wicklow, the figure is 94.6 per cent.

The counties with the lowest rate of vaccination are Monaghan and Donegal. In Monaghan, 15.9 per cent of the population aged over 18 is not fully vaccinated (84.1 per cent fully vaccinated) and that rises to almost one in five over the age of 12 (19.1 per cent) – 80.1 per cent are fully vaccinated.

In Monaghan, 82.5 per cent of the population over the age of 12 and 85.4 per cent over 18 are partially vaccinated. This means that 17.5 per cent of over-12s and 14.6 per cent of over-18s are not vaccinated at all in the county or they received their vaccination outside the State.

In Donegal, 85.1 per cent of the population over the age of 18 is fully vaccinated and that falls to 81.3 per cent in the over-12s.

Cavan (86.9 per cent), Donegal (81.3 per cent), Dublin (86.5 per cent), Kilkenny (88.6 per cent), Laois (84.7 per cent), Longford (86.9 per cent), Monaghan (80.9 per cent) and Offaly (88.4 per cent) all have full-vaccination rates for the over-12s of less than 90 per cent.

Three counties have vaccination rates of less than 90 per cent for over-18s, Donegal (85.1 per cent), Laois (87 per cent) and Monaghan (80.9 per cent).

In Dublin almost one in 10 of the population (9.9 per cent) over the age of 18 is unvaccinated.

Nationwide, 91 per cent of people over the age of 12 and 92.5 per cent of those over the age of 18 are fully vaccinated.

Similarly, 91.5 per cent of over-12s and 93.7 per cent of over-18s across the State are partially vaccinated.

The figures are dated up to October 24th and are based on an estimated eligible population in the State of 4,152,710 people over the age of 12, as of April this year. That figure is an estimate by the Central Statistics Office.