Analysis: Loss of Qusayr a psychological blow to Syria’s rebels

The fall of rebel-held Qusayr is a major gain for Syrian government forces bolstered by veteran fighters of the Lebanese Shia Hizbullah movement. The army's victory tips the balance of force in favour of Damascus but does not signify an end to the military stalemate.

Qusayr is of considerable strategic importance to the rebels, the government and Hizbullah. The town straddles the main corridor for smuggling arms and fighters into Syria from Lebanon and is located near the main Damascus-Homs-Aleppo highway which branches off east of Homs across the top of Lebanon to reach loyalist coastal cities where Damascus receives supplies of food, fuel and weapons.

Rebel forces will now be less able to set up checkpoints or mount attacks on troops on the Damascus-Homs section of the motorway.

Supply route cut
The loss of Sunni Qusayr also means the rebels will find it difficult to resupply from this part of Lebanon, as many villages northwest of Qusayr are inhabited by Lebanese Shias protected by Hizbullah.

By helping to rout rebels from Qusayr, Hizbullah has bought a measure of security for these villagers who have come under attack from Sunni groups.

The fact that well dug-in rebel forces based in Qusayr were forced to flee despite being heavily reinforced by fighters from a variety of groups in a rare display of unity showed that they cannot hope to match the firepower of the Syrian army and its allies.

Regarded by the government as a dramatic victory, the recapture of Qusayr is certain to boost the morale of the regular army, a largely Sunni conscript force led by professionals, while delivering a hard psychological blow to the rebels.

Squeezed out
In recent weeks, they have been systematically squeezed out of the capital's suburbs as well as contained in Homs and Aleppo by government forces ordered to re-establish control in the centre and west of the country, leaving the rebels entrenched in the north along the Turkish border and the east to the oil field city of Deir al-Zor near the Iraqi border.

The retaking of Qusayr also has serious political implications for both Syria and, because of the involvement of Hizbullah, Lebanon.

Military advances are likely to strengthen the hand of Syria’s government if the US-Russian proposed peace conference takes place in Geneva next month.

Strategic losses on the ground could weaken rebel leverage within the opposition National Coalition, if it chooses to attend the conference, as well as reduce the coalition’s ability to stand firm on its main demand that president Bashar al-Assad’s departure must be the outcome of negotiations.

He has said he plans to stay on until the 2014 presidential election and could run again if that is what the Syrian people want.

Violent fallout of the rebel rout from Qusayr could include attacks by Syrian and/or Lebanese Sunni anti-Assad factions against pro-Hizbullah Shia urban areas, towns and villages inside Lebanon.