The price of European natural gas has fallen below €50 per megawatt hour for the first time in almost 18 months, a landmark moment in the energy crisis as mild weather and ample storage helped temper what was once runaway prices.
European gas prices have fallen as much as 85 per cent from their peak of more than €300/MWh in August 2022, when Russia’s deep cuts in supplies to Europe after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns of possible blackouts.
“Europe looks like it has successfully weaned itself off Russian gas,” said Henning Gloystein, at consultancy Eurasia Group.
The European benchmark TTF contract fell almost 5 per cent on Friday to a low of €49/MWh as traders reported growing confidence that countries on the continent will avoid shortages this winter and next. UK prices have also fallen sharply and are trading at around the same level.
Mr Gloystein added that the TTF was “still expensive, but no longer needs to price in the risk of outright shortages”.
The return of prices to 2021 levels marks a setback for Russian president Vladimir Putin ahead of the first anniversary of the Ukraine war on February 24th.
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Moscow’s energy income, which initially soared after the invasion and helped fund the Kremlin’s military offensive, has now slumped. Russia’s oil now sells at a deep discount and gas prices are no longer high enough to compensate for the country’s drop in export volumes.
The fall in gas prices has also stoked expectations that EU countries and the UK may only experience a mild recession this year, or could entirely avoid an economic contraction. The European Commission says the slide, combined with government and household spending, has boosted the EU’s short-term prospects.
Soaring gas prices stoked a cost-of-living crisis last year and fed into high inflation as Russia weaponised its gas supplies to Europe in retaliation for Western support for Ukraine, cutting off the majority of exports.
But since then, the relatively mild winter, reductions in demand and successful efforts to boost supplies from alternative sources have left extensive gas in storage as the end of winter approaches.
Prices remain elevated compared with historical levels of about €10 to €30/MWh but analysts said they were no longer threatening to trigger a prolonged and deep recession across Europe.
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Gas prices, which last summer were so expensive that they were equivalent to almost $500 for a barrel of oil, have now fallen to about $85 a barrel.
Household bills are unlikely to fall as fast, as suppliers will have hedged gas and electricity for consumers when prices were at much higher levels. But the decline in the wholesale price should eventually feed through to lower bills.
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With only six weeks of winter remaining, gas storage levels in Europe, one of the key metrics for avoiding shortages, stood at about 65 per cent full as of Wednesday, according to trade group Gas Infrastructure Europe, well above normal levels for the time of year.
Gloystein said industrial gas demand in Europe has fallen about 20 per cent in the past year without a significant drop in manufacturing output because of greater efficiencies and fuel switching, while long-range weather forecasts were now predicting a relatively mild March that should reduce demand for heating.
Analysts said this should make refilling storage ahead of next winter relatively straightforward even with lower Russian supplies than at the start of 2022.
They also pointed to the imminent return of the Freeport liquefied natural gas export terminal on the US Gulf Coast, which provided about a fifth of all US export capacity before an outage last summer, as a source of renewed supplies to the market.
Tom Marzec-Manser, at ICIS consultancy, cautioned that the drop in prices may start to stoke demand for gas in Asia, particularly as China’s economy reopens.
“While storage levels are high in Europe, and Asia is not showing any immediate signs of trying to outcompete the Atlantic for cargoes, the falling price will undoubtedly reignite some demand for gas, both in the industrial and power sectors,” Mr Marzec-Manser said.
“This means that, while the TTF [benchmark price] is creeping lower, any fallback to pre-Covid wholesale gas prices is unlikely to happen yet.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023
