Interest rates expected to stay at 4% throughout 2024 – survey

Interest rates are expected to remain close to 4 per cent next year, while more than 42 per cent of financial services leaders believe the UK will rejoin the European Union (EU).

The conclusions form part of a survey carried out by Mason Hayes & Curran at its Financial Services Insights event in Dublin on Tuesday.

Almost 40 per cent said the main ECB rate would be between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent, while 37 per cent predicted it would be more than 4 per cent. Only 22 per cent thought it would be around 3.5 per cent by the end of next year.

The survey also looked at current global political tensions and their potential macro-financial effects. A third said the re-election of Donald Trump was the biggest threat to global political stability in the medium term, while 25 per cent were concerned about China and potential conflict over Taiwan. More than a fifth believed climate change to be the biggest threat, and 20 per cent saw Russia’s continuing the land war in Europe as a major threat to geopolitical instability.

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“Our financial services lawyers are deeply cognisant of the geopolitical issues shaping both the sector and the nation at large,” said Neil Campbell, partner and head of financial services at Mason Hayes & Curran.

Some 42 per cent said the UK will be back in the EU by 2040.

Speaking at the event, political commentator Alastair Campbell described Brexit an “act of self-destructive folly”.

“Populism isn’t about what is popular; instead it is a form of politics that sees a problem as something to be exploited instead of something to be solved. Nobody now thinks Brexit is going well. So I think at some point it has to be fixed,” he said. “I hope we get back into the European Union at some point. I think leaving was the biggest act of self-destructive folly. But I look at the European Union now and I think the question is also, what sort of European Union are we talking about?”