Typically the Central Statistics Office’s monthly live register data moves in tandem with unemployment. They’re not the same thing as part-time workers can claim benefits and are therefore included in register but not in the unemployment data.
That said, there tends to be more people claiming jobless benefits when unemployment is on the rise and vice versa. Hence the latest live register, published yesterday, showing there were some 3,300 less claimants in October, corresponding to a 1.8 per cent fall, poses something of a head-scratcher.
It clashes with last week’s unemployment numbers, which showed headline unemployment in the Irish economy rising for a third consecutive month in October. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October was 4.8 per cent, up from 4.7 per cent in September, 4.5 per cent in August and 4.4 per cent in July.
The latter reflects a general softening in the labour market here in the face of a global slowdown in demand linked to rapid monetary tightening by central banks. The softening tallies with a contraction in output – as measured by GDP (gross domestic product) – in Ireland and across the euro zone, which many believe will continue into a recession in the final quarter of 2023.
The fall-off in live register appears to run counter to all this and there was no obvious explanation from the CSO. The disparity between the two measures is likely to get washed away in the coming months as the CSO’s unemployment data is derived from the most recent Labour Force Survey and the latest live register data. Hence the headline measure of unemployment here tends to get revised a lot.
Ireland’s record low unemployment rate of 3.8 per cent, announced in May and June and heralded as a milestone as it eclipsed the record low achieved during the Celtic Tiger era, as well as attesting to the strength of the labour market, was voided in August in the face of fresh data.
