The Republic’s population could swell to over 7 million by 2057, according to new projections from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
The agency has mapped several projections for how State’s population might grow between now and 2057 based on various assumptions about inward migration and fertility rates.
Under a high net migration scenario, which assumes inward migration starts at 75,000 in 2022, decreasing incrementally to 45,000 by 2027 and remaining at this level out to 2057, the population grows by 1.8 million (35 per cent) to 7.01 million.
The more moderate net migration scenario, which assumes net inward migration of 30,000 a year after 2032, the population grows by 1.26 million (24 per cent) to 6.45 million by 2057.
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Under a low migration scenario, which assumes net inward migration of 10,000 after 2032, the population is only expected to increase by 549,685 (10.6 per cent) to 5.73 million in 2057.
The CSO noted that “the key change in each of these scenarios” was net migration with assumptions regarding fertility and mortality remaining constant.
The agency said that for each of the three scenarios there would be a change from natural increase (more births than deaths) to a natural decrease (more deaths than births).
Under the high population growth scenario, the natural increase is projected to be 18,600 in the five years to 2027, falling to a natural decrease for the first time, of 3,900 in the 2047-2052 period.
The number of births each year in Ireland has varied over the past 50 years, peaking in 2009 with 75,550 births before moving onto a downward trajectory on the back of declining fertility rates.
The number of people aged 65 years and over is set to increase significantly over the period of these projections, hitting 1 million by 2030, the CSO said.
This is expected to place significant financial strain on the State in terms of additional healthcare and pension costs.
The CSO noted that while both net migration and natural increase (births less deaths) both play important roles in the population change out to 2057, “net migration tends to be the more important component in the high migration scenarios”.
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In the high growth scenario, where the population grows to over 7 million, 90.9 per cent of the increase is due to net inward migration and 9.1 per cent due to natural increase, the agency said.
The Irish labour force is also projected to increase under all three potential population growth scenarios to between 3 and 3.3 million by 2037.
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