Markets mixed as geopolitical tensions grow

Oil spikes amid fears Israel may strike Iranian refining infrastructure

An oil and gas reserve in Ahvaz, Iran. Oil prices rose amid fears Israel may hit Iran's infrastructure. Photograph: Solmaz Daryani/The New York Times

Markets were mixed on Thursday amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil surged 4 per cent on Thursday rising to $77 a barrel as traders braced for the possibility that Israel’s retaliation against Iran for its recent missile barrage will include strikes on the country’s oil industry.

Dublin

In Dublin, the Iseq Overall Index finished Thursday up 0.86 per cent. Ryanair fell 0.81 per cent, standing at €16.00. AIB dropped 0.78 per cent to €4.82 and Bank of Ireland rose marginally to €9.28.

Insulation firm Kingspan fell 2.53 per cent to €80.85 a share on Thursday. Home builders Cairn Homes rose by 1.22 per cent to €1.99 and Glenveagh Properties rose by 1.40 per cent, finishing at €1.59.

London

The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 edged lower on Thursday, with losses in mining shares offsetting another strong day for energy companies, while Britain’s biggest supermarket group Tesco climbed after raising its annual profit forecast.

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The blue-chip FTSE 100 index was down 0.1 per cent while the mid-cap index FTSE 250 eased 0.2 per cent.

Heavyweight mining shares lost ground, with indexes tracking industrial miners and precious metal miners down 1.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

Prices of industrial metals like copper slipped on worries about ongoing conflict in the Middle East, a stronger US dollar and some uncertainty about the demand impact of stimulus measures in China.

Gold also lost ground as the dollar strengthened as markets reassessed the likelihood of another 0.50 per cent Federal Reserve rate cut.

Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said there was a chance the central bank could move more quickly to cut interest rates if there is further good news on inflation.

Europe

European shares declined on Thursday, as investors remained wary of risk-taking amid elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with most sectors logging declines except energy giants. The benchmark pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.9 per cent lower, touching its lowest level in more than a week.

Most regional markets slipped, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 falling more than 1 per cent each.

The automobile sector declined 2.1 per cent with Milan-listed shares of Stellantis down 4 per cent. Construction and materials shed 2 per cent, bogged down by a 4.8 per cent decline in French firm Bouygues after lowering its 2026 sales and profit expectations.

New York

Wall Street’s main indexes were mixed on Thursday after data showed strong service activity in the world’s largest economy, while cautious investors watched for any escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The benchmark S&P 500 pared losses after the Institute for Supply Management survey showed service sector activity, which makes up the majority of the US economy, stood at 54.9 in September, compared with an estimate of 51.7, according to economists Reuters polled.

However, separate data showed weekly jobless claims rose marginally last week. Next up is Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for September.

Odds of a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Reserve’s November meeting now stand at 64.9 per cent, up from 50.7 per cent a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.1 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45 per cent.

Beyond the moves in oil and concerns about a widening war in the Middle East, a workers’ strike on the US East and Gulf coasts entered its third day. Morgan Stanley economists said a prolonged stoppage could raise consumer prices, with food prices likely to react first.

“Market participants have three things on their mind right now: tensions in the Middle East, how long will the longshoremen’s strike last and does that have inflationary implications,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. Additional reporting: Agencies

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