A week into the Trump presidency and we have a template for how things are likely to go in terms of trade/diplomatic negotiations. After Colombian president Gustavo Petro on Sunday refused to allow two US flights carrying deported migrants to land because they were military, not civilian, aircraft, Trump threatened the South American country with 25 per cent tariffs of all exports into the US. Washington also threatened to introduce a travel ban and “immediate visa revocations” on Colombian government officials.
Colombia is the US’s fourth-biggest source of foreign oil, it accounted for $5.4 billion (€5.1 billion) of the $16 billion worth of products the US imported from Colombia in 2023. The US also imports 27 per cent of its coffee from Colombia.
The tariffs would, in theory, have led to higher prices for US consumers but Colombia was in a much weaker bargaining position on account of the US being its largest trading partner, an economic asymmetry that almost immediately had the Colombian side backing down. Later on Sunday, Colombia’s foreign minister said the state would allow US military planes to fly deportees into the country. As a result, tariffs would be “held in reserve,” the White House said in response and the dispute was resolved.
The episode illustrates the zero-sum diplomacy that Trump is planning to bring the US foreign relations and trade disputes, particularly if they get in the way of his administration’s immigration policy.
Last week Trump signalled that all imports into the country would face tariffs, a move that could spark tit-for-tat trade wars.
Addressing business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said he planned to cut business taxes in the United States to as low as 15 per cent and beckoned business leaders to come and make their products in the US.
“But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then very simply, you will have to pay a tariff,” he said.
It’s a case of co-operate or else.
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