Growth in artificial intelligence-focused data centres will drive demand for gas- and coal-fired power plants, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

The IEA projects power demand from data centres to double by 2030. While renewable energy capacity is also set to increase, especially in Europe, the intermittent supplies provided by wind and solar won’t be sufficient. Baseload generation, such as gas, will often best match the demand patterns of data centres, the agency said.

With some of the largest planned data centres consuming the same power as 5 million homes, that has huge implications for greenhouse gas emissions.

Gas supplies 40 per cent of the data centre demand in the US, the biggest market, and is likely to power most of the capacity expansion through 2030, the IEA said. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump signed a raft of measures he boasted would expand the mining and use of coal inside the US, a bid to power the boom in energy-hungry data centres and revive a flagging US fossil fuel industry.

In the No. 2 market China, the dirtiest fossil fuel already dominates the power mix for data centres, according to the IEA.

There is still a lot of uncertainty around power demand from data centres by 2035, with the IEA’s range of outcomes spanning 700 to 1700 terawatt-hours. That means there is a huge variation in the projected demand for both gas and nuclear power. – Bloomberg