THE fate of 22,000 jobs in Northern Ireland could depend on government and local companies making the right decision about European Monetary Union, according to Mr Stephen Kingon, managing partner of management consultants Coopers & Lybrand.

Research into manufacturing and exports undertaken by Coopers & Lybrand suggests that 22 per cent of Northern Ireland's manufacturing output is sold to EU markets beyond the UK. Mr Kingon says this means that one fifth of all manufacturing jobs will depend on this business continuing after the introduction of a single currency.

Given Northern Ireland's high dependence on manufacturing exports, Mr Kingon says, the effect of EMU on the local manufacturing sector cannot be ignored.

"Whatever the UK decides about EMU," he said, "it will still happen on the 1st of January, 1999. The degree to which it will impact on exports and jobs here will depend on how well prepared exporters are."

Mr Kingon said that regardless of whether the UK goes into EMU or not, companies must plan now for the challenges, or face the consequences.

"Businesses will be hit by external factors over which they will have no control. They must, therefore, redouble their drive for improved efficiency and competitiveness in the workplace."

Coopers & Lybrand's findings reveal that only 17 per cent of local manufacturing companies employ more than 25 people. Mr Kingon says this means that the majority of the 22,000 jobs dependent on manufacturing exports are in a small number of growth orientated firms.

"A lot of jobs depend on a small number of local companies continuing to win substantial export orders," he said. "It is even more important that these companies understand the effect EMU will have on their ability to remain competitive in these export markets."

Between 1991 and 1995, Northern Ireland's total exports grew by 44 per cent, from a relatively low base.

As exports continue to grow, Stephen Kingon says, EMU will have greater implications for Northern Ireland's manufacturing sector.

"Six of the top 10 export markets for IDB client companies are potential EMU members," he said. "Local manufacturers with substantial exports into these countries must define what this could mean for this business. And companies with high levels of material imports from EU countries will also be affected if their country of supply joins EMU and the UK does not."

The increasing probability of the Republic joining EMU in 1999 will also have an impact on the Northern Ireland economy, if as looks likely, the UK remains outside.

Over recent years Northern Ireland industry has been gradually reducing the deficit in respect of crossborder trade, but it is far from clear if this trade will remain unaffected if Ireland joins.