Business Opinion: All else being equal the Groceries Order will be consigned to the dustbin of history some time around Easter. This week the Competition (Amendment) Bill starts the final committee stages in the Oireachtas and after that gets signed into law.

What happens after that is a matter of some debate. Those in favour of abolishing the order - which prohibits the selling below cost of packaged groceries - believe its removal will usher in greater competition between supermarkets and thus lower prices.

Those opposed to its rescinding argue that it spells the death of the small independent retailer and all that goes with it in terms of the social fabric. This particular view was bolstered last week with the publication of a report called High Street Britain: 2015 which was prepared by the House of Commons All-Party Parliamentary Small Shops Group.

As the title suggests the report is an attempt to predict the short to medium term outcome of the prevalent trends in British retailing, the most significant of which is intense competition between the supermarket chains in the absence of any mechanism of price control such as the Groceries Order.

The report does not paint a pretty picture. "There is widespread belief therefore that many small shops across the UK will have creased trading by 2015 with few independent business taking their place. Their loss, largely the result of a heavily unbalanced trading environment, will damage the UK socially, economically and environmentally," concludes the report.

The mechanism by which this state of affairs will come about is explored in some detail in the report. It predicts that initially the number of small shops going out of business because they cannot compete with larger competitors will continue to accelerate. But at some stage a tipping point will come when the number of small shops will fall to a level that the independent wholesaling sector on which they rely will all but collapse.

The consequences of this for the remaining small shops will be catastrophic as the major suppliers would not be interested in trading with them individually or supplying them directly. They will have little choice other than to shut their doors.

In tandem with this will be continued expansion by the big supermarkets into sectors such as clothing and non-food products. This in turn will have consequences for other high street stores and also for suppliers.

"Smaller suppliers will face increasing downward pressure on their margins that could eventually force many out of business by 2015. Larger suppliers will be increasingly challenged by the prospect of their brand being diluted," the report warns.

A number of other related predictions are made about the future high street. News agents will cease to exist in their current forms, the fortunes of rural shops will depend on how well they can adapt to local circumstances and the days of the independent petrol forecourt retailer are also numbered.

All in all it is pretty apocalyptic stuff, but there is not much in the report that has not already been predicted to happen on this side of the Irish Sea by the opponents of the abolition of the Groceries Order.

One new element is the predicted collapse of the independent wholesale sector, which has not been highlighted to the same extent here. It goes a long way to explaining the trenchant defence of the order staged by Musgraves, the Cork-based wholesaler which claims 33 per cent of the wholesale market here.

However, the most interesting aspect of the report from the perspective of the Irish debate is that bleak though the prognosis for the British high street may be, the Small Shops Group did not see the introduction of price controls - via a ban on below cost selling - as a viable solution.

Instead it has called for a moratorium on future mergers and takeovers "until measures have been brought in to secure the diversity and vitality of the sector".

The report goes on to spell out the areas it feels action should be taken by a newly created Retail Regulator. They range across codes of practice to examining the environmental impact of consolidation. All of the recommendations are applicable to a greater or lesser extent to the Irish market.

But most significantly, a ban on below-cost selling is not seriously discussed, although the report acknowledges that it happens in the UK market. The report actually mentions the Republic's Groceries Order but concludes it led to uncompetitive groceries prices at the store level.

The key thing to take away from the Small Shops Group report is that any further consolidation of the supermarket business here needs to be very closely policed and it is imperative to have tough and workable legislation to prevent the abuse of dominant positions, both at a national and local level.

Opposition parties have queried whether - in the context of the abolition of the Groceries Order - the existing merger and competition laws are sufficient, but the Government is adamant that they are.

Lets hope they are right and roll on Easter.