Airbus well advanced with super-jumbo project

The world's two largest airliner manufacturers hold diametrically opposed views on the worth of the superjumbo, the 650-800 seater…

The world's two largest airliner manufacturers hold diametrically opposed views on the worth of the superjumbo, the 650-800 seater aircraft which could transform air travel in the 21st century through bigger, but fewer, planes.

While Boeing has disclosed that it is implacably opposed because it does not believe the demand is there - and that airport congestion would rule it out, anyway - the European consortium Airbus is well advanced on a project which would see such an aircraft in regular service by 2005.

Boeing was again pouring scorn on the plan this week. Mr Randy Baseler, one of its senior marketing directors, explained that - however the company looked at the figures - there was likely to be a demand for only 350 king-sized jumbos between now and 2018.

In the next 20 years, there will be 15,800 airliners sold, of which 4,300 will be replacements, he said. But Boeing does not envisage the new planes being what he called "big boys", with cocktail bars, ensuite accommodation for families and dining room facilities.

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Boeing insists that it has focused on the demands of the customer. They want to get to their destinations safely, cheaply, in comfort, and on regular flights.

This, he claims, is what British Airways has begun to copy from US carriers. The days of the workhorse Boeing 747 are not numbered, but airlines such as BA are turning to the Boeing 777, which has fewer seats but which can provide more regular flights between two city points.

Mr Baseler is scathing about the potential for the big jumbos. He is sceptical of the claims that there will be fewer take-offs and landings - but even more concerned about congestion. "Air travel is growing at such a rate that airports could have difficulty in dealing with such a large and sudden throughput," he says.

Boeing's views are given no credence at Airbus, for which British Aerospace (BAe), with a 20 per cent interest, makes the wings.

On the available evidence, Airbus has left Boeing well behind on the development of its super jumbo, the A3XX. It has been promoting the project for the past four years. About 1,000 Airbus technical staff are now seconded full time on the project, 150 of whom are based in Bristol in the west of England, adding the last touches to the final design of the wings.

Airbus hopes to arrive at a position in December where it will be able to reveal the final blueprint to an expectant industry. Before then, several things are supposed to happen, of which the most significant is launch aid from the four governments involved in the project, the British, the French, the Germans and the Spanish.

Considerable horse trading is involved, but Airbus is pressing for 25 per cent of the development costs of about $11.9 billion (€11.44 billion) to be provided by the four partners. It has set a deadline of an Airbus executive board meeting in November to be guaranteed the money.

BAe has already applied to the British government for up to £500 million sterling (€774 million) of launch aid, repayable over a period of years. If the British Trade and Industry Secretary, Stephen Byers, agrees to provide the British government's share, Airbus will immediately embark on a yearlong process of realising the design of the A3XX, leading to a roll-out by the end of 2000. Airbus has at least 21 interested airline companies which say they want a slice of the action, including BA, Singapore Airlines and, perhaps worryingly for Boeing, several US carriers.

Airbus confidently expects that it can start producing the A3XX at the rate of four a month by 2005. Its view is that the A3XX will not take up any extra space at Heathrow or Los Angeles than a Boeing 747 does now. Despite Boeing pouring cold water on the idea, Mr Baseler admitted that if Boeing's own forecast for the "super-jumbo" were revised upward to, say, 700 between now and 2018, "then we might well have to sit up and take notice".