The numbers flying between Dublin and London will grow from the current level of four million to near 5.5 million per annum by 2004, according to Aer Lingus projections.
The route is the busiest in Europe since the opening of the Eurostar link between London and Paris and is likely to remain so for many years.
In the period January to September 1999, Aer Lingus carried 37 per cent of all passengers who travelled on the route. Ryanair came next with 32 per cent, and British Midland third at 20 per cent. Cityflier, a British Airways franchise, had 7 per cent and CityJet had 4 per cent.
New routes announced by Aer Lingus earlier this month are part of its preparations for its pending alliance with British Airways and its strategy for targeting particular classes of customers. The semi-state believes the Dublin market is likely to increase by 7 to 8 per cent per annum for the next three to five years.
Mr Philip Molloy, an analyst with ABN-Amro, believes the estimate is "a bit steep" but not unreasonable, given likely economic growth in Ireland and Britain. In general terms he believes the changes announced by Aer Lingus - the dropping of the Stansted route and the initiating of flights to Gatwick and London City Airport - will "more than likely" lead to less price competition, a point which has also been made by both Ryanair and CityJet.
Ryanair is now the only carrier flying into Stansted, though Mr Molloy believes it will be anxious to keep its fares as low as possible to dissuade other low-cost airlines from moving onto the route.
The move from Stansted by Aer Lingus has led to speculation that Go!, the British Airways low-cost subsidiary, might move onto the route. A spokesman for the airline said it is looking at up to 80 different potential European destinations at all times, to a greater or lesser degree, and that Dublin is one of those. However no decision has been taken.
Aer Lingus has said that its new strategy will involve an increase of 11 per cent in the number of Aer Lingus passenger seats on the Dublin-London route. The increase, which is above the projected increase in the size of the market, is necessary to provide the frequency needed to attract the sort of customers now being targeted.
An offshoot of this, according to a spokesman for the company, is that there will be additional low-fare seats available, particularly into Gatwick.
Ryanair, which has 16 flights from Dublin to Stansted per day, is to add new flights as a reaction to Aer Lingus pulling off the route. The company wants to "block off" anyone else moving onto the route, according to financial controller Mr Howard Millar. A company spokeswoman said the route has not reached saturation and that low-cost fares will see more people travelling more often, as well as more customers abandoning ferry travel. The Irish Times asked Apex Travel, Dame Street, for the price of a Dublin-London ticket, leaving at 7 a.m. and returning at 7 p.m. for the morning after the request was made. British Airways had a 6.30 a.m. flight to Gatwick for £161. Aer Lingus had only a business class seat, at £368, flying to Heathrow at 7.50 a.m. Ryanair had a flight to Stansted leaving at 6.55 a.m. for £152.
CityJet had a 7.05 a.m. flight to London City Airport. A business class seat cost £325. There were no business class seats left on the Aer Lingus 7 a.m. flight to London City Airport. The cost of the ticket would have been £324.
