Analysts await Fed's take on US economy

THIS WEEK: A speech by US Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan and monthly US jobs figures will top this week's agenda…

THIS WEEK: A speech by US Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan and monthly US jobs figures will top this week's agenda as markets ponder the health of the world's biggest economy and the future path of interest rates.

In Europe, today's Ifo survey of German business confidence will be eagerly awaited. At home, the quarterly national household survey is out, along with Live Register figures.

Mr Greenspan, who recently agreed to accept a fifth term at the helm of the world's mightiest central bank, will testify before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

"Some Fed officials have recently been quite bullish on the outlook for the US economy and it will be interesting to hear what Greenspan has to say," said Mr David Page, economist at Investec.

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Recent news on US jobs and manufacturing activity has been disappointing, but many economists are predicting that confidence is set to to pick up after the unexpectedly swift fall of Baghdad to US forces earlier this month, but not just yet.

Germany's Ifo survey will be released today and is expected to show businesses in the euro zone's biggest economy becoming more upbeat about future prospects.

Monday

Results: ABN Amro (Q1), Allergan (Q1), Ambient, Clinical Computing, Handelsbanken (Q1), Lionbridge Technologies (Q1), Norsk Hydro (Q1), PPL Therapeutics, Procter & Gamble (Q3), Santander Cent. Hisp (Q1), Solitaire Group, Statoil, Volvo (Q1), Wanadoo (Q1).

A.G.M.: Avesco (e.g.m.), EBS, Harrier, Mayborn, Stadium.

Meetings: OECD Forum 2003 (Paris); IAPF/World Pension Association annual conference (Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin); Institute for the Study of Social Change Conference. " The Boundaries of Government in Modern Ireland" (UCD); ISITC Europe 2003 European Conference (Conrad Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: US personal income/spending (Mar) and prices (Mar); British CBI total orders (Apr) and CBI quarterly trends (Q1); German import/export prices (Mar) and Ifo business sentiment survey (Apr).

Others: Council of the Americas 33rd annual conference addressed by President George Bush and Secretary of State Mr Colin Powell (Washington - to Tues); Publication of report on demand and supply of skills in the food processing sector.

Tuesday

Results: ABB (Q1), Aberdeen Asset Management (H1), Alcatel (Q1), Alexandra, Amvescap (Q1), BASF (Q1), BP (Q1), Bristol-Myers-Squibb (Q1), British American Tobacco (Q1), DuPont (Q1), Ericsson (Q1), European Motor Holdings, Forbidden Technologies, France Telecom (Q10, Halliburton (Q1), Highland Gold Mining, Ispat International (Q1), McCarthy & Stone (H1), Oxford Glycosciences, ParthusCeva (Q1), Pechiney (Q1), Randstad (Q1), SCA (Q1), Stora Enso (Q1), Westbury.

A.G.M.: BAE Systems, Coutts, Delcam, FBD Holdings, Incisive Media, Intercare, Kidde, Nordanglia (e.g.m.), Singer & Friedlander, Smith & Nephew, Syngenta, UK Coal.

Meetings: Annual OECD council meeting at ministerial level of foreign affairs, finance, economy and trade ministers (Paris - to Wed)

Indicators: Euro-zone retail sales (Feb), current account (Feb) and M3 data (Mar); Irish planning permissions (Q4); British retail sales (Mar) and consumer sentiment (Apr); US consumer confidence (Apr) and employment cost index (Q1); German consumer sentiment (May) and wholesale sales (Mar); French producer prices (Mar), GDP (Q4 revised), housing starts (Mar), business outlook (Apr) and business climate (Apr).

Others: European Central Bank vice-president Mr Lucas Papademos presents ECB report to European Parliament; Publication of JNLR figures; European Parliament committee interviews ECB executive candidate and Austrian central bank vice-governor, Ms Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell; British National Institute of Economic and Social Research publishes quarterly economic review; Japanese public holiday.

Wednesday

Results: Anglo Irish Bank, AstraZeneca (Q1), Aventis (Q1), BBVA (Q1), Blacks Leisure, Bookham Technologies (Q1), Chubb (Q1), Deutsche Bank (Q1), Elan (Q1), Game, GlaxoSmithKline (Q1), Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (Q1), Monsanto (Q1), Munich Re, Pressac, Rhodia (Q1), Rugby Estates, Schering (Q1), Whitbread.

A.G.M.: Aggreko, AstraZeneca, Irish Continental Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson, Legal & General, Pittards, Provident Financial, RAC, Wilson Bowden, Wyevale Garden Centres.

Meetings: Ability 03 conference to bring disabled people and employers together; PwC/Landwell Solicitors host first Life Science Executive Forum on "The Future Direction of the Life Science Sector in Ireland".

Indicators: Euro-zone consumer prices (Apr),business climate (Apr), economic sentiment (Apr), business sentiment (Apr) and consumer sentiment (Apr); Irish quarterly national household survey, tourism and travel (Q4) and public sector employment and earnings (Dec); French unemployment (Mar) and consumer sentiment (Apr); Italian consumer prices (Apr) and producer prices (Mar).

Others: US Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan appears before House of Representative financial service committee; Coillte annual results; Outdoor Advertising Awards; British Chancellor of the Exchequer Mr Gordon Brown gives evidence to the Treasury Select committee on his recent Budget.

Thursday

Results: Exxon Mobil (Q1), Jennings Brothers, John David Group, ICI (Q1), Phytopharm (H1), Shire Pharmaceuticals (Q1), Shiloh, Silentnight Holdings, Sun Life Financial (Q1), Tyco (Q1), Walt Disney (Q1).

A.G.M.: Cattles, Gaskell, Hat Pin, Norish, NTR, Readymix, Sherwood International, Zotefoams.

Meetings: O2digital media conference (O'Reilly Hall, UCD); Tánaiste Ms Harney addresses Slovenian business lunch (Conrad Hotel, Dublin); IntertradeIreland Plato National Networking Day (Burlington Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Irish wholesale prices (Mar) and national accounts (Q4); US productivity (Q1), unit labour costs (Q1), Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index (Apr), car sales (Apr) and construction spending (Mar); British purchasing managers index (Apr), consumer credit (Mar) and CBI distributive trades survey (Apr).

Others: Irish Insurance Federation publishes "Communication Guidelines for Insurers and Policyholders"; Public holiday throughout most of euro zone.

Friday

Results: Chevron Texaco (Q1), Giardino, Numico (Q1), Shell (Q1), Unilever (Q1).

A.G.M.: Broadcastle, Clarke (T), Fisher (James), RMC, Travis Perkins.

Meetings: Ifo hosts Munich Economic Summit on "Europe in the Global Economy: Matching the US?"; Symposium on topics in macroeconomics and finance (UCC).

Indicators: Euro-zone purchasing managers' index (Apr); Irish unemployment (Apr) and industrial stocks (Q4); US factory orders (Mar), unemployment (Apr), average earnings (Apr), average working week (Apr) and durable goods orders (Mar revised); German retail sales (Mar) and purchasing managers' index (Apr); French purchasing managers' index (Apr); Italian purchasing managers' index (Apr).