Apple makes what could be its last mistake

MANY obituaries have been written about Apple Computer, all of them premature. This time, it's probably different

MANY obituaries have been written about Apple Computer, all of them premature. This time, it's probably different. A $10 billion company won't just disappear, but there seems little doubt that its present structure is just not working and is unlikely to continue. The parts no longer add up to a vibrant whole.

The company, which employs 1,400 at its Cork plant, is ripe for dismemberment an opinion shared by Wall Street, which has given it not much more than a book valuation.

Apple's online business, e World, is being folded into a site on the World Wide Web (its strategy evolving in line with that of most other online service owners including AT&T, News Corporation and Microsoft).

E-World was launched with the twin aims of securing partners for its growth and generating an "annuity stream" of cash coming into Apple. Relentless price competition, cut throat marketing by competitors, internal struggles and the relentless march of the Internet put paid to e World.

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Another new business, Newton, has had well chronicled problems finding its market either under the Apple brand or under those of licensees like Motorola or Sharp.

But, of course, the most scrutinised part of Apple is its 14 year old Macintosh brand, and people around Silicon Valley gasped in December when the company warned it would probably make its first ever loss in the traditionally strong Christmas season.

The reasons are still not clear, but it seems that once again Apple misforecasted the market and did not make enough of the right sort of Macs to meet demand. And because Apple is itself the source of some key parts of the Macintosh, the new Mac licensees couldn't take up any of the slack with their own "clones".

The company said yesterday that fierce price competition in the personal computer market slashed its profit margins in the first quarter, resulting in a loss despite rising sales. The troubled computer company said it would now be forced to restructure its business.

Although reports have mentioned layoffs at the computer maker, Apple held off all details of its restructuring until its quarterly results are released next Wednesday.

The Cupertino, California based company has seen an exodus of top officials recently, delays and recalls of key computer models in the fall, and a steady drop in its stock price since the summer.

Apple's dilemma has been that each time it has sought to increase market share, it has done so at the expense of its profits. Apple was the top PC seller in the autumn, but it won the title through price cuts that made profits untenable.

Apple said it now expects a net operating loss of about $68 million (£42.53 million) after taxes, or 55 cents per share, before restructuring charges. In last year's first quarter, Apple earned $ 188 million, or $1.55 a share.

Why this fundamental failure of management? Fingers in the Valley point to Mr Michael Spindler, Apple's embattled chief, named last week by Fortune magazine as one of America's least charismatic chief executives. This would not worry him, as he never set out to be a media darling like his two predecessors Jobs and Sculley.

However, at this time when Apple needs all the friends it can get in the industry the lack of a visible, compelling figurehead is troubling. Chairman (and largest Apple shareholder) Mr Mike Markulla is even more reclusive. He never speaks to the press or to industry gatherings.

Mr Spindler has always shunned the limelight in favour of getting the job done, resenting the "goldfish bowl" mentality of Silicon Valley, with its cult of personality. All very laudable, if indeed the job is getting done. The numbers indicate otherwise.

The New York Times on Sunday noted that Apple is "on top of many analysts" most dismayed with management lists these days". According to the paper, the company is also being closely tracked on Wall Street "necrology lists" that group of stocks that is likely to rise in value when the company's management dies or moves on in other ways.

There are a variety of opinions around the Valley as to what will happen to Apple, all of them tinged with sadness that such an iconic company could get to this stage.

With the growth of the Internet, every company both large and small (including mine) feels it needs to have a website and this is proving an unexpected market for Apple's most powerful Macs, which are used as servers or host machines for many web sites due to their ease of use and maintenance compared to UNIX based servers.

This is a high margin business that is not particularly price sensitive, and therefore attractive to a number of companies IBM, Canon and Matsushita are among those mentioned. The software division is the home of the Macintosh operating system, which is proving to be robust and due for a well reviewed update (code named Copland) later this year or early 1997. Possible suitors there are Mr Larry Ellison's Oracle Corporation or, again, IBM.

Somebody suggested to me that IBM should buy the Mac operating system, kill it, and put the name on its own 05/2, which is excellent technology that nobody has been convinced that they need.

Former Lotus chief executive Mr Jim Manzi has been mentioned as a potential partner with Mr Ellison to take on some or all of Apple, especially the software division. Mr Ellison again California's self styled richest man has been expressing some interest in the Newton technology as the basis for his mooted $500 Internet access computer.

This week's rumour, which I have heard from sources within and outside Apple, is that the company's largest supplier, Sony, has expressed an interest in purchasing Apple outright. Several sources say negotiations are going on between the senior management of each company, with the final price the only item left to agree on. Whether this is true or not, Sony has recently, under its new management, reaffirmed its interest in becoming a PC brand.

Sony sees personal computers as the link that can tie together the delivery of its "software" games and movies to the ultimate consumer. Apple, with its strength in multimedia technologies and the power of its reputation among parents and educators, would be an ideal complement. It would be an intriguing combination.

Whatever the outcome of the rumours and discussions, as tens of thousands of Mac lovers converge this week on downtown San Francisco for the annual MacWorld Expo, the pundits seem to be expecting a new chief executive and possibly a new set of owners for the fabled Macintosh by the time next year's show rolls around.