If I was still in my old job I think I'd be obsessing about Argentina by now. And, if there weren't so many lurid headlines in the papers about technology companies crumbling and their founders disappearing over the hill with a P45 or pink slip, I think Argentina would be getting more business coverage. But maybe a lack of frontpage exposure suits the economy minister, Mr Domingo Cavallo, and the president, Mr Fernando de la Rua, because Argentina is wobbling like an oversized jelly at the moment and investor nerves are wobbling with it.
In May I mentioned the government had cancelled a scheduled bond auction, a deed that sent shivers up the spines of holders of Argentine paper and caused a sell-off of a selection of Latin American bonds. The situation was resolved, albeit temporarily, when Mr Cavallo managed to swap $29.5 million (#34.6 million) worth of short-term bonds for longer-dated ones.
But now the holders of that longer-dated paper are worried that Argentina could default on some of its debt, which would render their holdings good for papering the walls but not much else.
Two months ago the bondholders were almost giving the country the benefit of the doubt.
Last week they changed their minds and started offloading as much paper as they could - and they weren't the only ones. Equity dealers knocked 7.1 per cent off the index too.
Argentina wasn't the only country to feel the pinch. Currency traders, to get in on the act, decided to sell the Brazilian real, and the Mexican and Chilean pesos, thus ensuring that the whole region came under pressure.
The ratings agencies dropped their ratings and put the country on negative watch, commenting that the authorities were failing to do enough to ensure investor confidence, that the prospects for economic recovery were slim and that it was almost impossible to envisage the necessary cuts in public expenditure given the political environment. Overnight rates have been as high as 200 per cent.
The authorities are, in fact, trying to put some spending cuts in place, without which there is a serious possibility of default.
Mr de la Rua has said that fears of default are a momentary problem, but it's more than momentary for people that are holding the bonds.
The worry is that the problems will spill over into other emerging market countries. We can still remember the shock waves of the Asian crisis in 1997-1998. The thing is, losses that investors incurred in those markets were partly cushioned by the massive profits they were making out of technology stocks and a buoyant US economy.
Without the safety net of at least one region on the globe doing really well, this Latin American crisis has the potential to inflict deeper wounds. Already the Asian markets are beginning to worry again and there was another momentary problem when it looked as if Turkey wasn't going to receive an instalment of funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) because of ambiguities regarding the implementation of certain measures.
Basically, the Turks wanted the cash without reforms and the IMF wasn't having any of it. It released the money last week but there could still be an uncomfortable situation brewing. According to the IMF, developments in Argentina and Turkey will be crucial in determining the availability of capital for other emerging market nations.
Of course one of the nastier problems for the Argentinians is that the peso is pegged to the dollar. Unfortunately a relatively small portion of its exports go to the US (about 11 per cent); much more are interregional. The continuing strength of the dollar is having a horrible effect on the competitiveness of Argentina, making its exports expensive in non-US markets.
If the peso wasn't pegged to the dollar it would undoubtedly have fallen sharply by now. In fact, last month Mr Cavallo brought in an export subsidy and import tax, which (from his point of view) has the same effect, at least as far as trade is concerned. He wants spending cuts and a zero deficit as well as social security reform. Mr de la Rua wants to cut spending without sacking anyone.
The unemployment rate is currently 14.7 per cent. The package of reforms that they've come up with includes hacking state salaries as well as various measures to reduce tax evasion. The former president, Mr Raul Alfonsin (who resigned in the middle of economic mayhem in 1989) has offered his support but, given his track record, that's not entirely encouraging.
Exactly a year ago Mr Eduardo Duharde, then a presidential candidate, called on Pope John Paul to pray for relief for Argentina. Either the pope hasn't been listening (and clearly didn't support Mr Duharde) or his prayers have been left unanswered.
While it would be nice to think that praying would actually help an economy, the solutions, including spending cuts, are rather more prosaic. But equally uncertain.
Anyway, the rumours have already begun that certain banks are in trouble over their Latin American exposures and corporate bond dealers are also feeling edgy as traders cash in the chips on all sorts of non-government debt.
If there are banks in trouble (and of course many of them have exposure to Latin American debt in one form or another) then maybe there will be intervention from other sources. But neither the IMF nor the US administration have indicated that any assistance is forthcoming. Mr Thomas Dawson, head of external affairs at the IMF, gave cautious support to what the Argentinians are already doing but was less enthusiastic about extending the $40 billion support package that was agreed last year.
Cutting more to the chase, the US Treasury Secretary, Mr Paul O'Neill, said the US was prepared to let hot money take a bath, although he is being somewhat unfair on investors who have stuck with the region over time.
Still, no-one ever said it was easy being an investor. What with one thing or another, though, this year it's been very, very hard.
