Markets, as we know, react to all kinds of events economic, sociological, political and, of course, scandalous. Being made up of people (though you'd never guess sometimes) I suppose they like the scandalous best there was as much media space devoted to Bill Clinton's latest escapades as there was to US economic data this week; and the market was definitely more interested in Bill 'n Monica than in the two-year note auction.
Certainly, the long bond wasn't looking too healthy on Monday morning, after the weekend saturation TV and newspaper coverage of the president and the intern. I know some people think that financial markets aren't part of the real world at all (all that ranting and raving and shouting frantically down two telephones!) but we look positively staid beside the maelstrom that is political life in the US right now.
Still, it provided plenty of opportunities for foreign exchange and bond traders to place their bets on the future of the leader of the free world. And it's obviously going to provide even more opportunities for everyone who ever walked through Washington to tell "their story".
To prove that every cloud has a silver lining, though, the attention on the US meant that our friends in the Far East got a bit of breathing space. In particular, investors seem to have come to terms with Korea and have been looking at it in a more benign way this last week or so. Gold also managed to rally from its lows, so there are probably quite a number of people thanking Slick Willie, Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky et al.
Perhaps it's simply Buddha responding to the pleas of the many Thais who have been praying at shrines around the country since the economic crisis hit. It's in times of crisis that people turn from the capitalist to the spiritualist. I don't suppose that the inhabitants of Thailand will be too upset to see the dollar taking a bit of a dive on the currency markets every little helps.
Interestingly, one of the booming businesses in Thailand at the moment (and probably a lot of other economically straitened countries too) is fortune telling.
People who have lost their jobs and their savings are flocking to the country's astrologers to find out whether things will improve.
And who in financial markets can laugh? There are plenty of stories of major financial institutions using astrology as a way of predicting market moves. Although there are no statistics on how successful they are.
Both Reuters and Bloomberg offer weekly horoscopes and have a "mass market" forecast. Given that there are hundreds of commentaries on both of these services from people who may or may not be experts on markets anyway, a carefully charted horoscope is just as likely to get it right as the latest Harvard whizz kid. Unfortunately, this column goes to press before next week's predictions are made (and drawing astro-charts is not one of my talents, I'm afraid), but apparently the moon was playing poorly on Mars this week. A top in the dollar is due by the New Moon on Sunday and the US currency will go lower next week. In addition, Neptune moves from conservative Capricorn to innovative, revolutionary Aquarius on Monday and this means that market focus should shift to the technology sector. You have been warned!
In the spirit of research I was going to buy a book on horoscopes last weekend so that I could keep you appraised of the latest in heavenly forecasts. I saw just the thing too month by month predictions and marked down to only £1. Then I picked it up and realised that it was a book of 1997 horoscopes . . . I can't help feeling that the bookshop was being somewhat optimistic.
I did receive a sporting prediction, but too late for inclusion and just as well. This was a sure-fire bet on the Dow which, according to statistics, goes up each time a team from the NFC wins the Superbowl and down when an AFC team wins. On that basis, I guess everyone in the States was cheering for the NFC's Green Bay Packers last weekend. Probably feeling pretty lousy about Denver's win and moodily switching on the screens on Monday. Only to find that the Dow had gone up anyway. So, you see, no sure fire thing.
If only Bill Clinton had consulted Ronald Reagan's astrologer, he'd have known to keep away from dark-haired girls called Monica. Brunettes called Paula. Blondes called Gennifer . . . life would have been a lot simpler for him although it strikes me that he's not exactly a man for the simple life.
And Hillary may have doubled her money in wheat options but it might be useful for her to know that the Sun's aspect to Uranus indicates a considerable shake-up.
Actually, what Bill needs now is an ice-storm like the one they had in Quebec recently. The city's premier, Mr Lucien Bouchard, has seen his popularity soar since the storms. He abandoned a Latin American trade mission so that he could stay in Quebec and he made regular TV and radio appearances as he spearheaded rescue efforts.
Now the talk is that, with 82 per cent of the population satisfied with his efforts, he might call for a spring election to renew his party's mandate.
An 82 per cent approval rating. What wouldn't Bill have given for that!
Deutsche Morgan Grenfell in Dublin reports that it has the opposite problem to its London office. While London had to hire women to mingle at its Christmas party, the Dublin office is more than 60 per cent female.
Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed income specialist at NCB stockbrokers.
