NET RESULTS:Media hype and a range of new products mean consumers are now more accustomed to using hand-held reading devices, writes KARLIN LILLINGTON
IN THE midst of the current Kindle/Sony/and-what-about-Apple e-reader hype, consider this.
“The major turn-off with e- books has been the discomfort of reading large amounts of text from a PC screen. If you get much beyond a few paragraphs of type, most people print it out,” Bill Gates recently told an audience at Microsoft’s headquarters. “It defeats the idea of immersive reading.”
Even the arrival of lightweight laptop computers hasn’t helped much. “It’s like having a cat perched on your lap on a hot summer’s day,” complains Bill Hill, a researcher with Microsoft’s eBook Group.
“The problem has prompted several companies to come up with specialised hand-held reader devices that are about the same size as the average novel, but with electronic memories and monochrome screens.”
Welcome to 2001. That's from a story I wrote back then for the magazine New Scientistcalled The Writing's On the Screen. I remember the exact day that I filed it, too – because it was September 10th, 2001. It appeared in an October issue.
I went back to have a look at it because it seemed to me that much of what is being said now about e-readers was being said then. Actually, a lot more was being said, but based on pretty thin evidence. For example, industry analyst Forrester was predicting that e-book sales would reach $7.8 billion and make up – wait for it – a full sixth of publisher revenue by 2005.
Wrong! And though a company called Gemstar released two e-reader models and predicted millions of sales in its first year, 12 months later, in late 2001, it had hit all of 60,000 units.
Anyone remember Gemstar? Maybe we should. Even though it stopped making its e-reader models years ago, people are still writing affectionate reviews on Amazon.
One posted last week says: “This thing has been with me for about eight years and still works as perfectly as the very first day. It came with a touch screen, a back light and a modem! Then ‘some’ company comes around 10 years later with a book that has no touchscreen, nor any kind of illumination and suddenly their device is revolutionary? [Gemstar] . . . that was revolutionary, but also too ahead of time.” Touché.
People just weren’t yet ready to use a hand- held electronic device for reading and downloading books. Yes, there were the usual problems back then of small screen, costly device, etc. I don’t think though that that really accounts for it entirely as, in the same period, I quite happily used a teeny Handspring PDA with an even tinier screen to read e-book downloads – it was quite adequate, and handy when travelling.
How weird is it that people cited small screens as an issue back then, yet these days buy costly electronics to watch movies play on screens that are often smaller still? I sat next to a couple watching a film on an iPhone during my last flight to San Francisco.
Perhaps that’s the point though – we are accustomed now to smallish displays and also to using electronic devices on the go for reading content, far more so than in 2001. We also regularly bring a variety of hand-held electronics with us when we travel. Bringing along an e-reader no longer seems a hassle.
So it seems, anyway. We have arrived at that perfect point where a couple of really decent, useable products (the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) are about to be augmented by a rash of newcomers (the much- anticipated, Google Android-based Barnes Noble Nook; something called the Alex from Spring Design; rumours of an Apple device and of a low-cost Asus device, among others).
There’s a green motivation for going paperless, and the bad-economy boost to the wallet of not buying lots of books (if you stick to freely available e-books, that is). And the biggest factor: at the moment, there’s serious media and consumer hype about and interest in e-readers.
Thus Forrester – caught out back in 2001 – reckons it is correct this time in revising its already glowing estimates of e-reader sales for the year. Device hype is building as we reach the holiday buying period. Forrester expects 900,000 units will be sold in November and December alone, bringing 2009 sales to about three million devices, one-third above original estimates. And it believes sales will double in 2010. I like these devices. I’d much rather download a couple of new reads into an e-reader when travelling than stuff my suitcase full of several heavy paperbacks, especially now that the maximum weight for passenger bags barely allows for a few changes of clothes, much less holiday books.
However, I think I’ll hold off buying anything until I see what the coming year or two brings in device choice, design and cost improvements.
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