Business surveys set stage for rate moves

Business this week: Business surveys across major economies as well as US jobs data this week will give early clues on March…

Business this week: Business surveys across major economies as well as US jobs data this week will give early clues on March performance and shed light on the likely speed and size of interest rate rises to come.

Purchasing managers' indices for Ireland, UK, US and the euro zone are due, as is Japan's keenly-watched quarterly tankan survey.

Robust numbers from the world's biggest economy are likely to support the view that US rates will increase once more from the 4.75 per cent they rose to this week, and may even prompt markets to move towards pricing in a peak above 5 per cent.

While US tightening is coming closer to an end, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen tightening steadily through 2006 and Japan is expected to raise rates from near zero by year-end.

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The ECB will announce its latest rate decision on Thursday, though analysts think there is only a 20 per cent chance that it will hike from 2.50 per cent.

With most now expecting the next rate rise in May, the focus will be on the tone of the post-decision news conference.

Unlike the other major central banks, the Bank of England is not seen in tightening mode.

Most see UK rates staying at 4.5 per cent although any signs of weakening economic growth could rekindle expectations of a cut.

It's a very quiet week for company results, with United Drug, CanWest and ABN AMRO interims offering chief Irish interest.

Monday

Meetings: Dillon Eustace hosts seminar on the Market in Financial Instruments Directive (Clarion Hotel, IFSC, Dublin); Chef business development conference (Marketplace Theatre, Armagh).

Indicators: Irish NCB manufacturing PMI (March); euro-zone manufacturing PMI (March); British manufacturing PMI (March), manufacturing output growth (March) and Halifax house prices (March); German manufacturing PMI (March); Japanese tankan index of capital expenditure (Q1) and manufacturing and non-manufacturing output (Q1).

Tuesday

Results: United Drug (Q1).

Meetings: David Dilger, chief executive of Greencore, speaks at UCD Smurfit School of Business, Blackrock, Dublin.

Indicators: Irish exchequer returns (March); euro-zone producer prices (Feb) and unemployment (Feb); US layoffs (March).

Others: Forfás publishes study on Irish oil dependency.

Wednesday

Results: Manganese Bronze (H1), Patientline.

AGM: Saab, Volvo, Signet (egm).

Meetings: National private healthcare conference (Berkeley Court Hotel, Dublin); technology investment conference (Four Seasons Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Irish NCB services PMI (March); euro-zone services PMI (March); British services PMI (March) and industrial production (Feb); German services PMI (March).

Others: BP issues first-quarter trade figures.

Thursday

Results: CanWest (H1).

Meetings: Oireachtas Joint Committee on Transport holds first public session on the sale of a controlling interest in Aer Lingus; Irish Management Institute conference on regulatory models - through Friday (Druids Glen Hotel, Kilcoole, Co Wicklow); Oracle and the Irish Bankers Federation host briefing on impact of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (Stock Exchange and Westbury Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Irish industrial employment and earnings (Q4); British NIESR estimate of GDP growth (March); German industrial orders (Feb); Japanese leading indicators (Feb).

Others: ECB governing council meets to discuss monetary policy - followed by interest rate announcement; Chambers of Ireland to launch corporate social responsibility awareness campaign; Bank of England announces monetary policy committee interest rate decision; Mothercare releases year trading figures.

Friday

Results: ABN AMRO (Q1).

AGM: Crest Nicholson.

Indicators: Irish unemployment (March); German industrial output (Feb) and external trade (Feb); Japanese household spending (Feb).