C&C may be cautious on pricing

BC Capital was the main provider of equity capital for the heavily leveraged €736 million buyout of C&C three years

BC Capital was the main provider of equity capital for the heavily leveraged €736 million buyout of C&C three years. So even if the C&C flotation comes in at the lower end of the suggested price range, then BC stands to get a pretty handsome return on its three-year investment. At the upper end of the suggested price range - €1.4 billion - BC will get an exceptional return that should keep its investors happy.

And they're off. Tony O'Brien, Maurice Pratt and the serried ranks of advisers to the C&C flotation are off on their roadshow ahead of the July flotation.

Given the less-than-stellar performances of recent flotations in Britain - Punch, William Hill and HMV come immediately to mind - there is a general belief in the markets that the C&C flotation will be priced to go. Both the selling shareholder, London private equity house BC Capital, and the heavily indebted C&C have different reasons for making sure that the flotation finds a willing market - so expect the pricing to be conservative.

Punch Taverns found to its embarrassment - and very much to the embarrassment of its advisers - that institutional investors are in no mood at present to put their money into aggressively priced new issues. To put it plainly, the new issues market right now is a buyer's and not a seller's market.

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For C&C, the flotation and the money raised is crucial to the future development of the company. Because of the scale of the leverage in the 1999 buyout, an awful lot of C&C's operating profits go on interest payments. Until the debt load is reduced and interest costs cut, the group's ability to expand through acquisition will be severely curtailed.

Assuming the flotation and the fund-raising is successful, then expect C&C to look abroad for acquisitions, as large-scale opportunities in the Republic will be limited by C&C's dominance and sheer scale.

The group has, in the past, looked at buying privatised drinks companies in eastern Europe, but without success. Some in the industry believe that C&C is more likely to look to Britain for acquisitions. Potential targets, say some sources, are cider manufacturer H.P. Bulmer (C&C already owns the Bulmer brand in the Republic) and scotch distiller Glenmorangie - an acquisition that would give C&C a way into the scotch industry. H.P. Bulmer is currently worth €275 million and Glenmorangie €200 million.

If one assumes a starting valuation of €1.1 billion and BC cuts its stake from the current 90 per cent to 45 per cent, about €500 million worth of existing shares will come on the market. Add in an estimated €400 million in new equity, then about €900 million of new and existing shares will be coming on the market. That's a lot of paper looking for a home so expect pricing to be on the conservative side.

So, if C&C does decide to float at the lower end of the valuations, are the shares worth a punt? Judging by the initial marketing - full-page newspaper ads, radio ads, mailshots and a helpline, C&C is keen to get in a sizeable number of small shareholders. It is thought that the company will want anything up to 20 per cent of the shares in private investor hands.

Without knowing the exact detail of the pricing, it's impossible to give an assessment of C&C's investment attractions. But when the prospectus does arrive, take a good look at how the issue is priced relative to its peer group in the drinks and consumer foods industries.

Look at the dividend yield and decide whether C&C represents a good investment for income as well as having the potential for a decent capital gain. If you're a short-term investor and simply want to "stag" the issue, then will the likely allocation of shares to small investors be sufficient to make stagging worthwhile?

No doubt, after the Eircom debacle, many small investors will be wary about buying C&C shares. But this time around, we aren't being subjected to the insidious Celtic heartbeat hype that surrounded the Eircom flotation.

C&C, by being exposed to the food and drinks sectors is also an inherently defensive stock that is unlikely to be subjected to the boom-bust cycles of the TMT sector.

Price will be the deciding factor and, assuming that the company and BC aren't too greedy, then C&C should be looked at - as part of a broader portfolio.