High-profile company mergers, expensive advertising campaigns, and latenight roadworks are symptoms of telephone companies gearing up to bring high-speed data networks to our doors. But don't be surprised if, in the coming years, a more popular broadband data channel for domestic users comes over a different wire: the television cable.
In the US, cable companies are already gaining a foothold in the Internet service provider (ISP) industry, with so-called cable modems providing hundreds of times more bandwidth than the latest telephone modems. In Ireland too, cable companies are testing the new technologies with a view to providing service in about two years time.
Traditionally cable networks have been one-way systems. In order to be used for Net access, users must dial up an ISP to send data via the telephone, while data comes back over the television cable at rates between 1Mbps and 10Mbps. The slower uplink is not a problem because most Internet use is highly asymmetrical typically up to a hundred times more data is received than sent (unless you use voice telephony or video conferencing applications).
Some cable operators 20 per cent of US operators, according to cable modem manufacturers 3Com, offer two-way, interactive links. This is an expensive option for the cable company: some estimates put the cost of upgrading the cable at $1,500 (£1,041) per connection. But the big attraction for users is that they get persistent, high-speed Net access for a flat monthly fee, without using the telephone. This means they are permanently online, able to receive e-mail and Web page updates as they arrive at the ISP, rather than when they next dial in as is the case for dial-up access.
So-called push technologies also become viable - where instead of browsing the Net for pages of interest, you identify what you want and updates get sent as they become available.
Internet cable service in the US costs typically $40 (£27.60) a month, roughly twice the rate of telephone-based ISPs, and cable modems costs upwards of $200. The bandwidth depends on the number of people actively using the service, and analysts predict typical bandwidths of 1.5Mbps, but say future improvements could lead to speeds over 30Mbps. The service is being initially aimed at residential users, although cable companies are expected to offer services to businesses too early next year.
So, what about cable companies here in Ireland? Well, none of them is offering data services yet, but at least two companies are currently testing cable modems. Cable Management Ireland, which has 28 individual town systems, is currently carrying out live trials in Swords.
Its chief executive, Mr Ray Doyle, says he "hopes to offer commercial service by the end of the second quarter 1998, at the latest". Mr Doyle says the company is looking at two-way service, because he says Net users are finding their telephone bills are very high. He also predicts "an unmerciful bottleneck" in Irish telephone-based Internet service as increasing numbers go online. "The one-way [cable] modem is a waste of time," he says.
Cablelink, with more than 300,000 customers on its networks in Dublin, Galway and Waterford, says it is "interested in providing Internet services to customers", but won't elaborate until it makes a further announcement in January.
The company is believed to be carrying out one-way cable modem tests, with six test channels currently in Dublin. Asked whether it was looking at one-way or two-way service, a spokeswoman said: "While the network is not currently interactive, Internet services can be provided by Cablelink via TV cable, but dialling up via the telephone line."
Mr Pat Cronin, chief operating officer of Irish Multichannel TV in Cork, says plans for data services are still "up in the air". He does not expect any service this coming year, but says Internet service, as well as interactive TV, pay TV and even cable telephony are "very much part of the future plans".
One industry source says it may be possible to provide telephony services over the cable before deregulation of the domestic user market, due in two years time, as the cable may be legally defined as a "closed system".
Mr Cronin says "up to £2 million" is being spent this tax year on upgrading the consumer taps and drop cables, and the next phase will involve upgrading the main trunks to fibre optics.
Interactive cables won't come cheap. Industry sources say Cablelink would need to invest more than £100 million to upgrade its network to a two-way service, and Cablelink concedes that provision of a two-way cable would involve a lot of digging up, which would be looked at "further down the road".
Mr Cronin estimates it would cost Irish Multichannel TV £8£10 million over five years to get totally interactive cable services, a figure he described as "ferocious".
But political considerations may be as important as cost considerations. Mr Doyle, who is also the honorary secretary of the Cable Communications Association of Ireland, says more than half of the 1.04 million homes in Ireland are connected to cable or MMDS. He says Government indecision over deflector groups, which threaten the spread of cable and MMDS, is a major impediment to upgrading cable systems.
Deflector groups are not understood to be interested in Internet provision at this stage, and Mr Doyle is calling on the Government to provide "a well-defined broadband telecomms policy".
Another big issue is the State ownership of Cablelink, which is 25 per cent owned by RTE and 75 per cent owned by Telecom Eireann. One senior industry source says he expects the Government to ask Telecom Eireann either to invest in, or sell, Cablelink.
If it were to invest, it might then stand accused of anti-competitive behaviour under EU law (the EU is already looking into Cablelink's ownership). But if it sells Cablelink, Irish Multichannel TV (owned by Princes Holdings) is rumoured to be interested. Were Irish Multichannel to buy Cablelink there would be a near monopoly in the cable industry, and another major competitor to Telecom for both its Internet and its telephony business.
Big changes are looming, but either way the consumer should be seeing megabits arriving soon.
Advantages of Internet using cable modems
Much higher bandwidth than telephone-based connections.
Lower phone bills (if two-way cable).
Permanently online.
Can make use of push technologies.
Can use Internet while watching television.
Disadvantages of Internet over cable
Bandwidth (speed) depends on number of users.
In the US, cable companies are traditionally perceived as poor service providers.
Large cost of upgrading cable may mean high monthly cost.
One-way cables mean you still have to use the telephone.
Not available in rural areas.
