Are Bernie Cahill's hands about to be prised off the joystick at Aer Lingus after 11 years? Possibly so, if the speculation generated by the recent spate of self-inflicted wounds has any currency.
A view is gaining credence, in the press at least, that perhaps it is time for Mr Cahill (71) to clear his desk, as his hold on the airline looks somewhat shaky at best.
After turning around the bankrupt national carrier in the early 1990s and steering it back to profitability, Mr Cahill appears to have been unable to get it to the next stage - a stock market flotation that would take it off the Government's hands.
It has also been suggested that Mr Cahill is too old to be chairman of a large company. This was the subtext to the decision by a group of Greencore shareholders to oppose his reappointment as chairman of the agribusiness group in February.
The other criticism being levelled against Mr Cahill is his record when it comes to chief executives. His burn rate in this regard is one that even the most ambitious dotcom would be proud of.
If the present incumbent, Mr Michael Foley, succeeds in holding onto his job, Mr Cahill will have had five chief executives and one acting chief executive during his 10-year reign. He will also have done several stints as executive chairman with the result that he has gone through his most senior executives at a rate of one every two years or less.
Mr Foley is determined to clear his name and refute the allegations of sexual harassment made against him. The airline's internal process for dealing with the allegations is still under way but, regardless of the outcome, relations between Mr Foley and Mr Cahill have soured to the extent that the executive's departure is likely.
If Mr Cahill was also to step aside under these circumstances, the consequences for the airline would be unlikely to be favourable. Aer Lingus would be completely rudderless. In the space of a couple of months it would have lost its chairman, its chief executive and also Mr John Behan, its industrial relations Svengali who departed earlier this year after failing to get on with Mr Foley.
It could not happen at a worse time. The workforce is demoralised by a year of inter-union and union-management battles. Business is down as a result of the slowdown in the US economy and foot-and-mouth disease. Profits this year are expected to be no more than £15 million (#19 million) and £200 million has been wiped off the company's prospective stock market value.
Aer Lingus's main competitor, Ryanair, is financially stronger than ever and its chief executive Mr Michael O'Leary is not noted for his mercy.
In the absence of a chairman, the responsibility for sorting out Aer Lingus - starting with the appointment of Mr Cahill's replacement - would fall to Ms Mary O'Rourke, the Minister for Public Enterprise.
This is where things start to get scary. Ms O'Rourke's actions in the last few days have done little to help the airline. Just supposing Aer Lingus was in low-key talks with a group of Irish investors or British Airways - as has been reported - the last thing it needed was a Government minister shouting from the rooftops that a trade sale was on the cards and the initial public offering effectively dead in the water. What little strategic advantage Aer Lingus's advisers might have had in the negotiations was blown away by the Minister on RTE news.
The Minister has shown no appetite for taking on semi-state unions during her tenure. Her relationship with the previous chairman of CIE, Mr Brian Joyce, was undermined by what he saw as her refusal to allow him face down the unions at the State transport company. She showed some mettle during the more recent rail strike, but only at the insistence of Mr John Lynch, the current executive chairman.
Ms O'Rourke is increasingly giving the impression of being a Minister who has strayed out of her depth. Her stock response to problems at the companies in her bailiwick seems to be the appointment of consultants with a brief to report back "as soon as possible". In consultant-speak "as soon as possible" usually means at least three months. The last thing Aer Lingus needs is a consultant's report in lieu of leadership.
The case for Mr Cahill staying on is a strong one, despite the doubts that have been raised in recent weeks. On the plus side, his handling of the allegations against Mr Foley would appear to have been vindicated - for the moment at least - by the High Court's refusal to grant the chief executive an injunction.
The problem is that the most pressing task facing Mr Cahill in the coming weeks will probably be to find a new chief executive and this has not been his strong suit. Finding someone willing to step into Mr Foley's shoes will be doubly difficult should he depart under a cloud.
The prospect of Mr Cahill occupying the role of executive chairman for a prolonged period is a very real one. That might not be such a good idea. jmcmanus@irish-times.ie
