Paddy Power shares have soared after it announced a potential merger with Betfair, but its expertise may lie more with the horses than with ranking potential Central Bank governors to succeed Patrick Honohan. The bookies have installed Department of Public Expenditure secretary general Robert Watt as favourite, and – assuming he is interested – his CV suggests he would be a strong contender. Having established the department, overseen the expenditure cuts and reforms of recent years and with a strong economic background, Watt would tick a lot of the boxes.
Elsewhere, however, the bookies probably have better intelligence on the racecourse. They have Department of Finance secretary general Derek Moran, pictured, among the potential field; but, as we hear he will be on the three-person interview panel, that doesn’t look very likely.
As well as the list of academic economists who might be interested – the likes of Alan Ahearne and John McHale of UCG and Philip Lane of TCD –– the bookies also include Englishman Paul Tucker, who lost out to Mark Carney at the Bank of England and subsequently left. Intriguing, but would he really be interested? Mary O’Dea, who previously worked with as consumer director at the Financial Regulator and has since worked in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, also makes the list. Some may well throw their hats in the ring.
But there are notable absentees from the bookies’ list. Chief among them is Irishman John Fell, a deputy director general at the European Central Bank, who was responsible for overseeing the introduction of the 2014 bank stress tests and was part of the Troika team here during the bailout. Were Fell to be interested, he would certainly score in terms of credibility in Frankfurt, likely to be an important factor. We would have thought, too, that Irishman John Hourican, who turned around Bank of Cyprus after his appointment as chief executive in late 2013, was also worth a place on the list. We also understand an extensive international search has been undertaken – there could yet be a dark horse.
With the deadline of September 1st for applications, many will be mulling their options over the weekend. A key decision is whether the most vital factor is brainpower or organisational and management ability. Let the race begin.
