CLIMATE CHANGE:A renewed commitment to lowering worldwide CO2 emissions means every individual and every country will need to review their responsibilities towards global warming, writes Frank McDonald
THE COUNTDOWN to Copenhagen is under way - in just 11 months' time, more than 180 countries are expected to reach agreement on how to tackle global warming at the 15th UN Climate Change Conference.
Even though Barack Obama takes over from George Bush as US president on January 20th, ushering in a more positive era of engagement with the issue by the world's biggest emitter of CO2, it is by no means certain a deal will be struck in Copenhagen.
Yet the crisis we face demands urgent action. Last year is likely to be one of the warmest on record worldwide, as well as one of the most turbulent for "extreme weather events". Ten of the 12 hottest years ever recorded have happened since the mid-1990s.
To limit the increase in global temperatures to 2 degrees, carbon emissions must start falling by 2015 and be cut by at least 80 per cent by 2050 (based on 1990 levels), according to the most recent assessment by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
What's needed, as Oxfam put it, is for countries to reduce their emissions in line with their historic responsibilities for the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere and their capacity to tackle climate change.
At last month's UN Climate Change Conference in the Polish city of Poznan, delegates agreed to kickstart an adaptation fund to help developing countries cope with the impacts of global warming. But they put only $80 billion (€58 billion) in the kitty; Oxfam extimates $50 billion (€36 billion) a year will be needed.
Money of this magnitude could be raised by putting a levy on fossil fuels. With road transport now accounting for 26 per cent of emissions - and rising - governments could fix a "floor price" for petrol and diesel; in Ireland's case, it might be €1.25 or €1.30 per litre.
A more radical proposal called cap-and-share has been put forward by Comhar, the Government's sustainable development council, based on work done by Feasta, the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability. It would make all adults responsible for meeting Ireland's emission reduction targets.
Comhar proposed it should start with the transport sector. Every adult would receive an equal number of shares to trade and those who use cars less would end up with money in their pockets after cashing in their shares. Conversely, those who drive gas-guzzling cars long distances would have to pay a penalty.
Prof Frank Convery, chairman of Comhar, said Ireland would need to introduce schemes like cap-and-share that are "innovative, ambitious and send clear price signals to consumers" if it is to meet the EU target of a 20 per cent cut in emissions by 2020.
Despite the compromises made by EU leaders at their December summit meeting in Brussels, the "headline figure" was retained - as indeed was the commitment that Europe would meet 20 per cent of its energy requirements from renewable sources, also by 2020.
The International Energy Agency also favours a "Clean Energy New Deal" - although it sees nuclear power playing a major role. According to executive director Nobuo Tanaka, "the global economic slowdown must be viewed as an opportunity, not a distraction from efforts to mitigate climate change."
Obama recently repeated his election campaign pledge to invest $15 billion (€10.7 billion) a year in securing a "clean energy future" for the US, based on wind and solar power, "next-generation biofuels", safe nuclear power plants and "clean coal technologies", underpinned by a federal "cap-and-trade" system. The president-elect also hopes to see one million plug-in electric and hybrid vehicles on American roads by 2015.
Denmark and Israel already have tax incentives to encourage motorists to switch to electric cars, powered increasingly by energy from renewable sources. And as the proportion of renewables used for power generation rises, emissions from transport could be cut dramatically if electric cars catch on.
The switch is being spearheaded by Better Place, a company founded by Israeli software entrepreneur Shai Agassi aimed at shaking up low-carbon transport. Since its 2007 launch, it has partnered major car manufacturers in developing prototype electric cars with an eye on expanding to California and Australia.
California, under the surprisingly enlightened leadership of governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, has offered tax breaks to all manufacturers of zero-emission vehicles, such as Telsa's Roadster sports car. The most populous state in the US has also put it to carmakers to make cars generally more fuel-efficient.
Even the still-oil-rich Gulf state of Abu Dhabi is taking a long-term bet on a clean energy future with its $15 billion (€10.7 billion) Masdar Initiative, through which revenue from the oil sector is being rechannelled into making this small desert sheikhdom a "hub of renewable energy research and development as well as sustainable living".
Vast sums of money are being invested in projects such as the development of thin-film photovoltaics to drive down the cost of solar power and a joint venture - Torresol - with a Spanish engineering group to develop concentrated solar power (CSP) plants in the world's sunbelt regions, starting with three in Spain.
In Abu Dhabi, work started last February on Masdar City, "the world's first zero-carbon, zero-waste, car-free city", which is to be built in phases over the next seven years. And this month, it will host the World Future Energy Summit, which Masdar's Sam Nader describes as a "mini-Davos" for innovators and experts.
Meanwhile, a century-old energy technology that taps steam from hot underground rocks is poised for a massive expansion in East Africa's Rift Valley, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). This follows the completion of a pilot project in Kenya testing new seismic and drilling technology.
The project is set to expand to Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania in 2009. "Geothermal is 100 per cent indigenous, environmentally friendly and a technology that has been under-utilised for too long," said UNEP's executive director Achim Steiner.
The potential in Kenya alone is estimated at 4,000 megawatts, he said, adding that the number of countries using geothermal power is projected to double to nearly 50 by 2010. By 2030, this source of energy could provide 2 per cent of total global energy production, up from 0.4 per cent in 2004.
Other positive developments announced in Poznan included a pledge by Mexico's environment minister, Juan Rafael Elvira, to cut CO2 emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 through "voluntary and non-binding commitments" to improve energy efficiency in industry, notably in the cement and oil sectors.
Brazil also announced a plan to cut deforestation in the Amazon by 70 per cent over the next decade - unexpected, given the country's environment minister, Marina Silva, resigned last May in protest against the government's failure to take on illegal loggers and ranchers.
Deforestation is responsible for even more CO2 emissions than transport, so the survival of the Amazon rainforest is crucial. In Poznan, a compromise was agreed on reducing emissions from deforestation, although the financial assistance has yet to be specified.
It is clear that most countries now accept their responsibility to tackle climate change - a significant shift in attitude compared to 10 years ago, when it was a distant threat.
But an equitable deal is still needed, one which recognises that the countries with the highest per capita emissions - such as the US and even Ireland - should bear a proportionate share of the effort to cut emissions. That's what "climate justice" must be about as we move slowly towards a low-carbon economy.
