Celtic cousin still a roaring success

The global economic apocalypse that some pundits suggested would follow the news of Yamaichi's demise never happened

The global economic apocalypse that some pundits suggested would follow the news of Yamaichi's demise never happened. However, the domino effect of such a major collapse is bound to have certain ramifications for the major world economies.

Although the impact of Japan's troubles on Ireland is relatively insignificant, experts believe certain effects will materialise.

The first of these is on the International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Dublin, says Mr Alan Gray, managing director of Indecon Economic Consultants. "The difficulties could improve the competitive performance of the IFSC as more companies may choose to locate here. Japan's trouble can benefit us that way," he says. "The other side of this coin is that it could dampen down international firms here who might be involved in trading in the Far East."

In terms of overall impact on the Irish economy, says Mr Gray, it would be minimal, as we have relatively little Japanese investment in Ireland. "However any change on the world market could result in a downturn in confidence on the Irish equity market," he says.

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"If the Yamaichi incident was not an isolated example and there was a crisis in other financial institutions this could also have an effect on investor confidence," adds Mr Gray. "The chance of a global economic crisis is remote," says Mr Liam Igoe, an analyst with stock brokers Goodbodys. "What will probably happen is that it will slow down economic growth worldwide which to a certain degree is no bad thing. But you wouldn't be so philosophical about it if you were living in Japan".

What we in the Celtic Tiger era can take from the Yamaichi story is the importance of assessing any potential risks to our booming economy.

In Goodbody Stockbrokers Equity Strategy for 1998 they outline issues which policy makers should watch out for in what they call "Ireland's New Golden Age".

The Irish economy owes it's new found buoyancy to a growth in the hi-tech sector, improvement in Government finances and the current consumer boom, they say. According to Goodbody Stockbrokers, if anything were to happen to undermine these factors the situation "could change significantly".

Being aware of these potential threats will ensure that the story of the Celtic Tiger does not also end in tears.