IRELAND'S chances of joining monetary union have slipped back marginally this week according to the investment bank J P Morgan's EMU calculator.

The markets, amidst new doubts about whether EMU will occur on time and criticisms of the German plan to revalue its gold, have taken the view that the project is now slightly more unlikely to go ahead on time.

Ireland now has a 73 per cent chance of joining, down from 77 per cent chance a week ago, but still well above the 57 per cent chance of four weeks ago.

This is still less likely than Portugal and Spain, but more likely than the Italians.

J P Morgan measures the market's expectations for the likely participants in monetary union using the interest rate swaps market.