The relaunch of the residential property price index is a welcome development. However, it is of concern that one of the more recent statistical databases produced by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) should have been so out of touch with the market that it purported to reflect in the first place.
The property price index was introduced only in mid-2011. Prior to that, data on property prices was available just from the private sector. An increasing number of estate agencies and lenders started producing datasets during the property bubble years. Often these were based on unrepresentative samples and were at odds with each other, making it increasingly difficult to get an accurate picture of the market.
Even the monthly data produced by Permanent TSB and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) came with a disclaimer that they were based on mortgages drawn down from lenders and not necessarily on prices paid.
Yet loan drawdowns were also the source for the figures compiled by the CSO from the outset for its new index. Though it was common currency at the time that cash transactions were accounting for a significant portion of the property purchases in the post-crash economy where banks were increasingly restricted and reluctant in their lending, no steps were taken to allow for their inclusion.
Regardless, the CSO index quickly came to be seen as the authoritative voice on property prices – so much so that the ESRI and others simply folded their tents.
The restructured dataset published yesterday is an admission that the index has not accurately presented the market position. As the CSO is now relying on stamp duty figures from the Revenue – a much more accurate indicator of the precise price paid for property than drawdowns, even leaving aside cash purchases – the revamped property price index should give a much more valid insight into the state of the market going forward.
The initial publication has been refreshingly informative, not least in the squeeze being felt by first-time buyers under current mortgage lending rules but also by the arrival of new players in the market.
Also of note, and with potential policy implications for Government, property funds, which were not a feature when the original index was first produced, are now estimated to account for almost a fifth of all activity in the private residential property market. Useful to know.