Consumer confidence has continued to edge forward as signs of international recovery increase, according to the latest results of the Irish Times/TNS mrbi survey. Cliff Taylor, Economics Editor, report.
It is the fourth month in a row when the trend has improved, though the balance of sentiment remains negative.
The survey shows a continued decline in the numbers expecting employment levels and the economy to weaken over the next year to 38 per cent, compared to 41 per cent in the previous survey.
Meanwhile, the percentage expecting conditions to improve has risen from 21 per cent to 23 per cent.
The latest Pulse consumer sentiment recovery was conducted between November 11th and December 4th.
It continues the improving trend of recent months, with the 38 per cent total of those expecting conditions to weaken the lowest since the survey commenced in April this year and well down from the 70 per cent peak recorded in August.
This coincides with increasing signals - particularly from the US economy - that the international environment is improving.
However, the overall balance of sentiment is still negative, with 23 per cent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next year.
This is the highest reading in this category since the survey commenced and compares with the low of 7 per cent in August.
That survey followed the announcement of a spate of job losses which appeared to affect confidence during the summer.
The latest survey suggests a degree of caution, with the percentage expecting conditions to "stay the same" at a relatively high 37 per cent, up from 35 per cent the previous month. Some 3 per cent of respondents fell into the " don't know" category.
It is the fourth month in a row that the overall trend in the survey has improved, but the changes are less dramatic than the preceding three surveys. With the overall balance still negative, consumer spending, while growing, may still be restrained by some uncertainty about the likely pace of recovery and Ireland's ability to share in it.
The Pulse survey, conducted as part of a TNS mrbi phone poll, asked respondents: "Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy are set to improve, weaken or remain the same?"
For the first time in recent months, the figures show differing confidence levels between chief income earners and others. Just 35 per cent of chief income earners expect conditions to weaken with 26 per cent looking for an improvement.
The balance is even closer for those who define themselves as "businesspeople" with 29 per cent expecting a disimprovement compared to 27 per cent anticipating a pick-up.
Among those who are "not chief income earners", 40 per cent said they expected conditions to weaken and 19 per cent anticipated a pick-up.
The trend in the survey is fairly consistent across various social classes and regions.
Looking at the traditional " ABC" classifications, the most optimistic group are those in the generally better-off AB category, where 32 per cent expected the economy to weaken, not far ahead of the 26 per cent anticipating an improvement.
Regionally, the balance remained negative across the State.
In Dublin, 37 per cent are looking for a weakening in the year ahead and 25 per cent predicting improving economic conditions.
Meanwhile, the retired remain remarkably upbeat, with 34 per cent saying they expect conditions to improve versus 30 per cent believing they will worsen.
There is a negative balance in all the other areas when the figures are broken down by "employment status", with housewives being the gloomiest of those sections surveyed, with 43 per cent expecting the State's economic conditions to worsen in the future and just 15 per cent expecting improvement.
