Consumer confidence improved marginally last month, but remains below July's highs, according to the latest results from the Irish Times TNSmrbi Pulse survey writes Cliff Taylor, Economics Editor.
It shows that the number of people expecting conditions to improve over the next year increased to 37 per cent from 36 per cent the previous month, while the percentage expecting conditions to weaken dropped to 15 per cent from 19 per cent previously.
The survey results suggest that the nervousness caused by the August spike in oil prices remained in place in September. The latest survey pre-dates the most recent increase in oil prices, which reached new highs last week and led to new fears about the global economic outlook. The next survey results will provide an interesting barometer of the consumer reaction to the latest developments.
The latest survey, taken between August 24th and September 16th, shows the largest group - 44 per cent - expect conditions to "remain the same", with the "don't knows" coming in at 4 per cent. Confidence had improved consistently from the middle of last year until the fall-back in August. Conditions remain much more favourable than at the start of the year, however.
Survey respondents were asked: " Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy in general are set to improve, weaken or remain the same?"
The figures continue to show that those defined as "chief income earners" remain considerably more optimistic, with 42 per cent expecting conditions to improve over the next year compared to just 14 per cent anticipating a decline. For those who are not chief income earners, the percentage expecting conditions to improve was just 31 per cent against 17 per cent anticipating a decline.
The survey shows that retired people remain by far the most optimistic, with 48 per cent expecting conditions to improve in the most recent survey, compared to 13 per cent anticipating a decline. However, this is still well short of the 64 per cent who anticipated an upturn in July.
Meanwhile, men remain more upbeat on the economic outlook than women.
The percentage of men anticipating an improvement in conditions increased from 40 per cent in August to 42 per cent in September, while the figure for women remained static at 31 per cent.
Consumer spending has picked up gradually this year and most forecasters expect it to gain momentum in the latter months, perhaps aided by a generous Budget.
The latest figures suggest that the overall balance remains positive, but with a large number expecting conditions to "remain the same", clearly many consumers remain relatively cautious.
While house spending continues to soar, Department of Finance officials said last week that the latest Exchequer returns suggested that general consumer spending had been strong on cars but rising "in fits and starts" in other areas.
