Cool operator relishes element of surprise

In the investment world surviving a stock market crash is like a rite of passage

In the investment world surviving a stock market crash is like a rite of passage. Having lived through six of them, Mr Gavin Caldwell is not prone to panicking and insists that amid all the corrections, blips and volatility "you must try to keep a cool head".

As chief executive of Ulster Bank Markets and chairman of the Irish Association of Investment Managers (IAIM), he can play a part in some investment decisions made here, but the fall-out from the sex life of President Clinton and the fortunes of the rouble are beyond his control.

Yet for Mr Caldwell and the rest of the investment community here, the uncontrollable factors are the ones that matter.

The worries about Asia, the collapse of the Russian economy and the Monica Lewinsky affair, have all combined to knock almost all of last year's gains off the value of world stock markets. Mr Caldwell, however, does not feel helpless in the face of such a gloomy picture. "That is the satisfying element of the job, the unknown factor and the way the market can surprise you," he says. But others don't have the benefit of previous experience of stock market slumps.

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"Yes, we have had clients on the phone in recent weeks asking us about their investment, but we welcome this and we point out to them that the long-term pattern of an investment or pension is what matters," he says.

Battling against the capricious nature of the market is like "playing a championship golf course every day from the back tee", he says.

Using more than a few golfing analogies, Mr Caldwell is attempting to raise the profile of the investment community and the IAIM by coming up with fresh ideas and pointing out that managing people's money is not a black art.

Originally from Derry and educated in Dublin (including a degree from Trinity College) he has 24 years experience in the investment business, mainly with Ulster Bank and before that, Bank of Ireland. After leaving school he did not have any career plan but resisted the idea of becoming an accountant.

A deliberate and low key speaker, he is diplomatic when arguing a point, but seems to genuinely enjoy the life of an investment professional.

He says unlike stockbrokers who have a public image, investment managers are a relatively misunderstood group. "People think what we do is terribly complicated, but it isn't, we simply manage people's money," he says. That is what he wanted to do from the first day he became involved in the investment sector back in 1971 as a research analyst with Wood MacKenzie, a leading British stockbroker. "I liked doing equity research, but as an investment manager you actually get to make decisions on where money will be invested," he says. As an Irish organisation, IAIM represents all the major investment outfits in the Republic and while there is competition, Mr Caldwell says there is great "camaraderie" between them.

This is the second time he has chaired the organisation and, with EMU approaching, he is likely to have a busy year.

One thing he makes clear is that scandals involving Tony Taylor and the financial problems of MMI are not representative of the investment industry here.

"Things like Tony Taylor are dreadful for the people affected, but those kind of things happen on the fringes of the sector," he adds. The Investment Intermediary Act should clear any of those problems up, he contends.

He refuses to comment on the problems at MMI, which is a member of the IAIM, but points out that the main investment companies are owned by the major banks, which makes their financial structure different to smaller players like the troubled MMI.

He likes to look at the industry in the widest sense and points out that events at home are not the only concern of either himself or the membership of the IAIM.

More than 50 per cent of investment portfolios are invested outside the Republic, mainly in Europe and the US. As a result, global events tend to be of more concern to IAIM members than rows in the Dail or small acquisitions on the Dublin market.

"When I read a newspaper, I would only have a quick look at a deal between say Jurys and Doyles, and be more worried about what Alan Greenspan is saying about interest rates," he says.

While the association is proud of investments it has made in Irish companies, Mr Caldwell says patriotism cannot be allowed to play a part in investment decisions. "You must invest with your head," he states.

He says the bitter experience of Irish investment managers when they put funds into GPA is proof that not everything Irish glitters.

However, the EMU revolution should mean that being an internationalist is an advantage, he says. "Because of the scarcity of suitable stocks for many years in Dublin, most IAIM members are used to playing the international markets and this will become increasingly important," he says.

He says IAIM members now invest in Irish stocks in a major way and consequently are having to build up their knowledge base.

"Because the main names used to be confined to Smurfit and CRH, we knew everything about cardboard boxes and cement, but with the advent of the Elans of this world, we have had to improve our knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry, for instance," he says.

The relentless flood of information is something Mr Caldwell deals with on a daily basis. Analysts' reports, stock updates, ratings results, profit forecasts clutter up his PC every morning and their paper equivalent is normally waiting in an envelope nearby.

He ruefully admits he sometimes has to bring some of the material home to read. However, he jokingly remarks that his wife may baulk at the idea of bringing his PC on their holidays in Co Kerry.

The job at Ulster Bank Markets and his work with IAIM mean lots of travel. His frequent trips to the US have shown him how investors and technology may combine in the future.

"Every time I go there I meet people with small gadgets clipped to their belts which look like calculators and which show them, in real time, how their pension or shares are performing," he says.

He regularly sees people in the US plugging in their laptops and trading on Wall Street as they sip a coffee at their desk.

While tracking your investment on an hour-by-hour basis may seem nightmarish to those with weak hearts, Mr Caldwell says we will soon have such technology. "We will see these kind of things. Even now I am extremely impressed by the level of knowledge ordinary people have of the market," he says.

When he began in the industry one word haunted all investors - tax. "The one and only consideration in years gone by for investors was how to avoid paying tax," he remembers. While a "tax efficient" investment is still important the size of the return tends to interest people more nowadays, he says.

But he does not see the investment community here simply ploughing money into the dependable stocks listed in Wall Street, London and Dublin. Last week, addressing the IAIM annual dinner, he proposed that pension funds be invested in large infrastructural projects in the Republic.

This would mean investing in bridges, roads and even public transport, which can hardly be regarded as a cash cow. "I'm in favour of pension funds being put into projects even like LUAS, and despite the perception of those projects, I believe if the pension fund industry was involved, a lot more financial discipline would be brought to bear on them."

He cites the example of National Toll Roads in which several investment companies took a stake and says it has been profitable in recent years.

His apparent passion for the IAIM job comes from his belief that the success of investment managers in Ireland in recent years compares with anything achieved in Europe.

"We have American brokers visiting us every week and they come here to see and find out about a centre of excellence which I hope we have created."

One of his regrets is that he does not have enough time to read fiction. He spends most of his leisure time playing golf.