BUDGET: It's never as good as the first time. But this year it might be almost as good, writes Marc Coleman.

Minister for Finance Brian Cowen is most likely to begin his speech today by repeating the usual mantras about the Government's record, a transformed society and economy, etc, etc. This will be qualified with worthy references to the need for ongoing vigilance, fresh challenges and new policy approaches, and so on and so on.

But then the good part starts. He will turn to discussing an economic situation that in some respects is practically unchanged from last year and in some respects better.

Last year he was facing growth of 5 per cent in the coming year. This year he will announce that the economy will grow by 4.75 per cent next year. Last year he predicted employment would grow by 35,000 in 2005 - it actually grew by almost three times that - and he will most likely announce an employment growth forecast of over 50,000 for next year.

This all will be qualified by references to the threats of rising oil prices, globalisation and higher interest rates. Expect the word competitiveness to pop up in the speech several times.

This will bring him to his budgetary forecasts. With the economy forecast to grow by 4.75 per cent and the inflation forecast to be around 2 per cent, we'll expect him to confirm last week's forecast for revenue to rise by 7 per cent. Ball park, you understand.

He will then announce his target for current spending. This will add about 2 percentage points to the 7 per cent forecast in last month's estimates. But Mr Cowen will justify the modest largesse with reference to the need to deliver better public services. To fund it, he should announce an exchequer deficit of around €1 billion.

He will then discuss infrastructure investments and announce how much will be put into the "envelope" for capital spending. The envelope is a device to make sure that any money unspent can be carried forward into the following year. This avoids last-minute rushes of spending.

This may be a sensitive point in the proceedings, given that for several years in succession the Government has been unable to meet all of its spending commitments in this area. That inability may come to an end the year before the election. Expect new schools and hospitals, with perhaps some details of new public-private partnership initiatives.

Until now only a few economists and trainspotters will have been interested in the speech.

It is at this point that Cowen starts to turn on approximately half of the population as he outlines the Government's plans on taxation.

Tax bands and credits are likely to be increased, taking more taxpayers out of the top tax rate and giving relief to lower income earners. No changes in indirect taxation have been flagged, but some change in stamp duty is possible.

A substantial part of this part of his speech will address the need to end tax loopholes for the rich. Several reliefs, including the one for stud fees, are likely to be abolished.

But if he refers to the importance of the construction sector to employment growth, this will be a sign that he intends to retain or extend some of the reliefs on property investments. Reliefs will also be retained on private hospitals. But reliefs for most hotel construction will go.

He will probably kick the pensions issue to touch and say that Government plans in this area will not be finalised until February's Finance Bill (the bill which implements budgetary measures).

It is at this point that social welfare and childcare issues will be announced. Mr Cowen is likely to also announce increased child benefit to appeal to women who work in the home as well as women in employment.

An increase in the multi-annual disability budget is likely, as are increases in carers' allowances.

By now he will be into the home straight. At this point expect references to measures already announced in last month's estimates about extra gardaí, extra teachers and extra medical staff. He may make a reference to ongoing reform of the health sector at this point.

And that's as good as it gets.