Job displacement? What job displacement? Anecdotal and isolated evidence apart, the Central Statistic Office's (CSO) latest Quarterly National Household Survey shows little overall evidence of the phenomenon.
Yes, a large influx of foreign workers has taken place in Ireland. But in all but two out of the economy's 11 sectors, more Irish people were working in November of last year than a year previously.
In the entire economy, the number of additional foreign workers, 43,300, is almost matched by the number of extra Irish workers. Some 86,500 jobs were created in the economy as a whole, some 38,400 of which were women.
In percentage terms, total employment is up 4.6 per cent. But while the number of Irish workers is up 2.4 per cent in the year to November, the number of foreign workers has jumped by 33.9 per cent, while the number of workers from accession states has more than doubled.
With Sweden and the United Kingdom, Ireland is one of only three countries in the EU where workers from accession states can work without having permits. And Ireland is one of the only economies in Europe enjoying a prolonged economic boom.
What is really remarkable is that in spite of being more open to foreign workers from low-wage countries, unemployment figures in Ireland, the UK and Sweden are better than the EU average. In the case of Ireland and the UK they are much better; less than half the EU average of 9 per cent, in fact. Irish unemployment has now fallen from 4.4 to 4.2 per cent, the lowest rate in the EU. In Sweden unemployment rate is just below that average at 8.7 per cent, but this was the case long before EU enlargement.
In only two sectors is there evidence of displacement. In manufacturing - which the CSO refers to as "Other Production Industries" - employment fell by 12,800. Irish workers took more than their fair share of this cut, their numbers falling by 19,900. The number of migrant workers in the sector rose by 7,200. On the face of it, you might say that there are 7,000 Irish workers in this sector who may have been displaced.
And indeed, although the unemployment rate has fallen, the actual numbers of unemployed has risen by 5,700 in the last November to November period.
But if there is displacement in this sector, yesterday's trade figures imply that it is indirect. Poor export figures for indigenous sectors imply that some manufacturing companies are simply closing down. Here jobs are being lost to China, rather than to incoming foreign workers. Ultimately, the preference of manufacturers for foreign workers that the figures reveal reflects competitive pressures originating from low-wage exporters the other side of the globe, well beyond the reach of social partnership talks.
Only in one other sector - the hotels and restaurant sector - is there some evidence of domestic displacement. The sector created 2,900 jobs in the year to November with 3,600 more jobs for foreigners offsetting a fall of 800 Irish workers.
But the huge rise in the number of Irish workers overall makes it likely that most of these have found employment elsewhere in higher wage sectors. A race to the top, you might say.
