Current Account

Unresolved issues keep Aer Lingus fog-bound: While the Government dithers over a sale of Aer Lingus, the airline faces several…

Unresolved issues keep Aer Lingus fog-bound: While the Government dithers over a sale of Aer Lingus, the airline faces several pressing issues that need addressing in the short to medium term.

The first is the most obvious. The airline has no chairman following the departure of former AIB chief executive Tom Mulcahy. While another board meeting is not scheduled for several weeks, the airline is anxious to get a new chairman.

It has also opened talks with Boeing and Airbus about upgrading its long-haul fleet. An attractive deal is likely with Airbus, and especially Boeing, under pressure to build up their order books.

The problem for Aer Lingus is one of funding. If the airline goes for an outright purchase of the aircraft, the bill could top €1.5 billion.

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This is money Aer Lingus simply does not have. The Government is no longer allowed to provide State aid to the airline, so debt financing is the only answer.

But without clarity on its future ownership structure, lenders will be reluctant to get involved.

In the meantime, rumours of chief executive Willie Walsh's departure continue to circulate.

While Aer Lingus has denied these rumours, there is no doubt that the former pilot is admired in European aviation circles and he has even been mentioned as a future boss of British Airways.

Better news on horizon for tech group investors: Shareholders in the Dublin-based company Horizon Technology Group have been on a "white knuckle ride" since it floated during the hi-tech bubble in 1999.

Quickly soaring to a high of more than £8 sterling in 2000, the firm's share price collapsed to 12 pence when the bubble burst, raising doubts about its future.

Fears about its survival have largely been put to bed following a share placing last year and a solid set of results in early March suggesting the worst is now over.

With €4.4 million in the bank, a strong technology recovery under way and signs that consolidation is gathering pace, Horizon shares - at 57 pence and well below their year high price of 74 pence - may be worth a punt.

The firm's annual report for the 2003 shows that cost control is still uppermost in management's minds.

Three executive directors, Mr Samir Naji, Mr Gary Coburn and Mr Cathal Caoimh, waived a portion of their basic salary and bonus entitlements worth a total of €81,000.

Given this rare show of magnanimity by an Irish executive team, perhaps shareholders will give the firm another chance.

Long-term shadow on economic prospects: Economists are tripping over each other to tell us how well the economy is doing. And indeed, in relation to the rest of the EU, Ireland's performance is positively stellar.

Strike one came on Tuesday, when PricewaterhouseCoopers said that growth here would be at the top of the EU league.

Strike two came on Wednesday, when the most raging of bulls, Dan McLaughlin of Bank of Ireland, declared that the Tiger was back and that GDP growth could reach 6 per cent.

And yesterday Colin Hunt of Goodbodys confidently predicted that the public finances were moving back into surplus.

Certainly the omens are good, most noticeably the recent tax figures, which pointed to an underlying buoyancy in the economy.

However, the question remains whether we are at the start of another prolonged period of boom, or whether the outlook is more mixed. There are arguments for the latter, certainly looking out to next year.

The sustainability of the US recovery is questionable and certainly some pull-back in growth is likely next year.

Asian growth is also likely to ease and confidence in the main EU economies is still dreadfully fragile.

Whatever the backdrop, the Irish economy looks set to outperform, but a slower international performance is bound to take its toll.