Retail sales and industrial production data released yesterday point to a weak first-quarter performance by the economy, analysts said. The figures, released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), also suggest "a very significant and worrying weakness in many areas of the manufacturing sector", according to the business lobby group, IBEC.

The CSO data showed that the volume of industrial production rose by 5.1 per cent in the three months from January to March compared to the first quarter of 2001. But IBEC said the increase came about because of a huge surge of 16 per cent in March compared with a year ago, following a period of stagnation in the first two months of this year.

The business lobby group said the figures disguised a "quite weak" underlying picture in many sectors. "In the first quarter of the year, while chemicals grew at an annual 32.1 per cent and food products by an amazing 21.6 per cent, most other sectors were registering significant declines," IBEC economist Mr David Croughan said.

He noted that the electrical and optical equipment sector was down 26.8 per cent, the metals and plastics and rubber sectors had an average fall of more than 13 per cent and textiles and textile products fell by 21.6 per cent.

IIB economist Mr Austin Hughes agreed, saying the strength of the chemicals sector masked a weaker performance in other areas, such as computers.

On retail sales, Mr Hughes said the bulk of the weakness was due to a slowdown in new car registrations amid signs of a pull-back from purchasing big ticket items.

Sales volume rose by just 0.1 per cent in March, the CSO said, but if the motor trade was excluded, the annual increase was 5.6 per cent. On a three-month basis, it was down by 2.9 per cent. "These figures suggest we are seeing a patchy turning point in the economy after the downturn of last year," Mr Hughes said. "But it augurs for modest growth only this year."