Rather than attempting to predict the outcome of the Microsoft antitrust case and any impact that it might have on their business plans, industry executives said they were focusing on keeping pace with rapidly changing technology. Although the case might eventually have broad effects on the marketplace, it was difficult to predict when it would be resolved and how, executives said.
While there is always the possibility of an out of court settlement, the case appears likely to drag on until 2001 or 2002, legal experts predict. In the meantime, technology developments could change the market landscape.
In particular, the development of "Internet centric" computing with software provided by "pay for use" services is creating new competition in the market for desktop software applications such as word processors and spreadsheets.
Sun Microsystems is among the companies that plan to offer free desktop applications via the Internet to compete with Microsoft's Office applications suite.
Similarly, the emergence of new "Internet appliances" used to access the Internet may reduce the hegemony of Microsoft's Windows operating system. The success of products such as the Palm Pilot handheld computer, which uses a proprietary operating system, demonstrated that Microsoft no longer had a stranglehold on the operating system marketplace, analysts said.
Microsoft's tight partnership with Intel, which has created the so-called "Win tel" standard for personal computers, is also changing, with the chipmaker becoming increasingly "software agnostic".
When Intel launches its next generation of microprocessors for use in high-performance computers, Windows will be just one of at least four operating systems available for use on the new machines. The emergence of Linux, an "open source" operating system that is available free of charge, is also shifting the balance of power in the software industry. Microsoft has repeatedly argued that it is part of a dynamic industry and on this point even the company's toughest critics are inclined to agree.
Already, the activities that landed Microsoft in court are irrelevant to most of its competitors. The antitrust case is largely centered on the company's tactics in its so-called "browser war" with Netscape Communications - that market battle is long over.
"We are witnessing a shift away from the importance of the browser technology to the content on the Internet," said Mr Clay Ryder, chief analyst at Zona Research, a market research group which yesterday announced that it was ending its study of the browser market. "The question (now) is how will the content war play itself out," said Mr Ryder.
In the content market, America Online has already emerged as a more powerful player than Microsoft, analysts said. Similarly, Microsoft has achieved only moderate success in the field of e-commerce.
Fears that Microsoft might control the Internet and impose charges on a broad range of e-commerce, which were prevalent when the antitrust case was filed, have substantially subsided over the past 18 months.
