Dispute dampens prospects for ICG

Investor: There are periods when fresh corporate newsflow from Irish quoted companies is very thin on the ground, but this is…

Investor: There are periods when fresh corporate newsflow from Irish quoted companies is very thin on the ground, but this is certainly not the case currently. On top of the regular newsflow concerning financial results and trading updates, there has been a deluge of significant company events in recent weeks.

Irish Continental Group (ICG), the owner of Irish Ferries, is locked in a bitter industrial relations dispute that has repercussions beyond the company itself. It is unusual to see all the State's political parties agree on an issue, but they have in this case, with unanimous condemnation of ICG's management and board.

The share price has performed poorly so far this year and is down by 10 per cent. Not surprisingly it has been quite volatile in recent weeks. Difficult trading conditions explain the poor share price performance prior to the current dispute, while the recent volatility is clearly in response to the ebb and flow of news concerning the industrial relations situation.

Investor is a little surprised that the share price hasn't fallen further, even though there are undoubtedly several positives that underpin the share price. ICG generates strong cashflow and it has a strong balance sheet.

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The long-term prospects for its freight business look good even if the long-term prospects for passenger and car ferry traffic is poor.

Therefore, there is a strong investment case for ICG if this long-term potential can be unlocked to the benefit of shareholders.

However, it is difficult to see a resolution to the dispute that will be unambiguously positive for shareholders.

A key negative is the extent to which the dispute has become such a political hot potato with all the social partners, except for business groups, lined up against the company.

Another former State-owned company grabbing the headlines is Eircom.

Just when it seemed that Swisscom was about to make a bid (rumoured to be at €2.42), the Swiss government, which still holds 66 per cent of the share capital, threw a spanner in the works by announcing that they would veto any foreign takeover by Swisscom.

This came as a shock to the market given that Swisscom has spent the past two years seeking a foreign acquisition. It had also expressed an interest in bidding for TDC, Denmark's leading telecoms company.

A venture capital consortium consisting of Apax, Blackstone, KKR and Providence last week announced that the board of TDC had agreed to recommend their bid to shareholders. And, earlier this week, Swisscom finally conceded that it was not pursuing its bid for Eircom.

When the news first broke concerning the Swiss government's position, Eircom's shares fell sharply to around € 1.90 (from a bid-induced price of € 2.30).

In Investor's view, Eircom offers fundamental value up to a share price of around € 2.

Market reports suggest that Swisscom was the only serious potential bidder for the company. With Swisscom out of the equation, the shares could settle back to trading around the € 1.90 level.

However, even in this scenario, rumours regarding potential suitors could well persist given that the company has effectively put up a "for sale" sign by agreeing to engage in a due diligence process with the Swiss in the first instance. Therefore, even in the absence of a bid, the shares could well trade in a € 1.80 to € 2 range for a considerable period of time.

Another company that is dependent on government and international trade policies is Fyffes whose share price has fallen by 10 per cent this month, as it became increasingly apparent that the EU would adopt a new tariff-only banana regime to come into effect on schedule from January 1st, 2006.

Fyffes has stated that the new regime will adversely impact on its costs. It will also lead to a step up in competitive pressures as highlighted by a statement from Fresh Del Monte that welcomed the new tariff-based banana regime.

Despite the recent weakness, Fyffes shares are still up by 10 per cent so far this year reflecting very strong profits growth in 2004 and 2005.

The company has a very strong balance sheet and holds substantial cash balances.

This does provide a floor to the share price, which is likely to be volatile, until the new regime settles down.

News regarding developments at the three companies discussed here, as well as many other newsworthy developments in corporate Ireland, seem set to keep investors, analysts and commentators busy into the early months of next year.