A repeat of the Drumcree stand-off this year will have a far more serious impact on tourism than the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, one of the North's leading economists has warned.
Mr Michael Smyth, senior lecturer in economics at the University of Ulster, said the foot-and-mouth crisis exacerbated a general loss of business confidence in the North earlier this year, but he believed civic unrest ultimately would be more damaging to tourism.
In the latest edition of First Trust Bank's quarterly "Economic Outlook and Business Review", Mr Smyth said that, despite a downturn in business confidence, the economy was stable. "Almost all the available economic data for Northern Ireland continues to paint a picture of a relatively strong regional economy. A closer inspection of Northern Ireland's key economic fundamentals suggests the positives continue to outweigh the negatives," Mr Smyth said.
The report highlights that employment in the North is 8 per cent up on 1996 which, in turn, has fuelled demand for housing, while manufacturing output continues to outperform the rest of the United Kingdom.
"We expect gross domestic product to expand by 2 per cent this year and accelerate to 3 per cent in 2002. Consumer spending should also rise by about 3 per cent as personal disposable incomes continue to expand rapidly, driven by higher unemployment and low, direct taxation," he added.
